REGIONAL DISCUSSIONS:

[jasiri]

Ethiopian trooops mass in Somalia border town

[Uzi]

http://www.newvision.co.ug/news/636361-independence-terror-attack-foiled-kayihura.html

"Kayihura said 27 have been charged in court and four released on bond pending further investigation. He also revealed that there are some young people who are being trained in Kenya, DRC and Tanzania to return here and destabilize Uganda".

Those are serious allegations, I sure hope you are wrong Police Chief, Gen. Kale Kayihura.

[Risasi]

Nigeria is deploying the L-39, I hear UPDF-AF has this bird and KDF-AF might be in the process of acquiring this bird.

The L-39 is a light ground attack/trainer aircraft. Like the SU-30s, they are two-seater and therefore suited for use as a trainer in Ug's situation. Kenya acquiring L-39s, quality-wise that would be horizontal movement not vertical in my view.

Why do you say so @ Spartan?

The F-5 as a fighter is just as good or even better than the L-39, in my view. I meant that Kenya should go for something much better than what it already has. Hope I've cleared the air.

Well, i see. Perhaps use the F-5 has a conversion to a newer 4th generation fighter?

The picture above are NAF MiG-21 or MiG-21 derivates not L-39.

With Spartan on the L-fighter. A move towards them is a horizontal direction if not a downwards trend.
L-39,L- 59, 1-159, (Czech aircrafts) were rejected back in 02 http://praguemonitor.com/2012/08/07/t%C3%BDden-us-manufacturer-behind-shortcomings-czech-l-159-planes

The F-5 can’t be used as a 4gen trainer. Different flight characteristic and controls.

[Risasi]

24hrs ago: talks on a Cross boarder raid into Mali to oust Muslim Jihadist linked to AL Kaeda.


Option 1. Francophone countries assisted by French SF boots. (most like like)
http://www.euronews.com/2012/10/13/mali-drc-head-agenda-at-14th-francophone-summit/

Option 2. Ecowas with the help of US and French SF. http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2012/10/14/2003545138

[Uzi]

http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/idf-shoots-down-drone-that-penetrated-israeli-airspace-1.468541

I hav been following this incident over the last 1 wk. What's puzzling is how the Iranian (thru Hezbollah) craft could have entered Israeli airspace, flew over most sensitive military and industrial centers even over the Dimona nuclear plant for about 30 mins b4 it was downed by an F16. Suppose the Drone had been armed? Could the drone be the first sign of successful reverse engineering of the captured US RQ-170?

[mogen]

http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/idf-shoots-down-drone-that-penetrated-israeli-airspace-1.468541

I hav been following this incident over the last 1 wk. What's puzzling is how the Iranian (thru Hezbollah) craft could have entered Israeli airspace, flew over most sensitive military and industrial centers even over the Dimona nuclear plant for about 30 mins b4 it was downed by an F16. Suppose the Drone had been armed? Could the drone be the first sign of successful reverse engineering of the captured US RQ-170?

Methinks there are two possiblities:1) either the thing sneeked up on the IDF like the one that previously came from Lebanon did their thing in israel and crashed inside Lebanon on its way out. or 2) the IDF saw it and followed to see where it was going and what it was doing. -- intercepting its comms etc.

the whole thing is a real concern.

[Al Bashir]

With both Mubarak and Zenawi out, is the scenario below likely to play out? The disturbing thing is that S.S has shown a willingness to accommodate the pharaohs. I hope their post independence views have changed.

http://www.businessinsider.com/hacked-stratfor-emails-egypt-could-take-military-action-to-protect-its-stake-in-the-nile-2012-10

[Spartan]

Ratings agencies, the poster boys of runaway capitalism have published their latest 'ratings'. Most East African countries are rated B or B+. For those who don't follow the dynamics of the global economy, there are three ratings agencies, (Moody's, Standard and Poor's, and Fitch). A country's rating determines how much and at what rate it can borrow, those with AAA rating can attract lots of credit at good rates and vice versa.

Noticed two things;

1. China, which is lending everyone and buying the debt of countries including the USA, is rated lower than, say, Belgium. Isn't this system rigged to maintain a certain world order? Just asking

2. Tanzania is not rated by any of the agencies. Guess they don't want outside interference as usual

[mogen]

Ratings agencies, the poster boys of runaway capitalism have published their latest 'ratings'. Most East African countries are rated B or B+. For those who don't follow the dynamics of the global economy, there are three ratings agencies, (Moody's, Standard and Poor's, and Fitch). A country's rating determines how much and at what rate it can borrow, those with AAA rating can attract lots of credit at good rates and vice versa.

Noticed two things;

1. China, which is lending everyone and buying the debt of countries including the USA, is rated lower than, say, Belgium. Isn't this system rigged to maintain a certain world order? Just asking

2. Tanzania is not rated by any of the agencies. Guess they don't want outside interference as usual

Those Rating agencies are as political as they get. For example they rated Lehman Brothers very favourably up until the day it collapsed. One of them rated Facebook favourably but hid a very unfavourable analyst's report. Consequently, a lot of people who bought into the Facebook IPO lost a lot of money.

the questions you should ask yourself are:

In the face of the global financial crisis
1. is there an African Bank that collapsed of required a government bailout?
2. is there an African government that required foreign bailout, like Greece or Iceland?
3. was there a run on any African Bank as happened a Northern Rock in the UK?
The answer to all of the above questions is None [zilch!]

But why? The answer lies with the trickery and deception that is rampant in the financial industry in the industrialized countries. Caution: deal with them as if you were dining with the devil - i.e. use a long spoon.

[mogen]

Rebels in Sudan's Blue Nile say tanks seized
Rebels in Sudan's Blue Nile say tanks seized
By Abdelmoneim Abu Edris Ali (AFP) – 5 hours ago
KHARTOUM — Rebels in Sudan's Blue Nile state said on Monday they had destroyed a Sudanese tank and captured two others but the army dismissed the report as propaganda while acknowledging fighting in another border region.
Both sides said they had fought in South Kordofan state despite a Khartoum-Juba deal aimed at cutting South Sudanese support for the insurgency...
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5isga0cjTHXRxHBI_I4w7Aoc5Nxmw?docId=CNG.0602af1344224b2597ffacb7a5fe3a93.31

South Sudan will take a while to start developing and uplifting its people's lives.

[Guest]

ECOMOG has been ready and willing to enter Mali and "do an AMISOM" for two months now. It is not a funding problem - ECOWAS has capacity to fund a 3000men Expeditionary Force into Mali and seek U N-compensation when the job is underway or finished. So, why the hiatus?

1. French and American hegemonistic interest are head-to-head. The French to retain Status Quo in Francophone Africa, the Americans to extend themselves into Africa to forestall Chinese inevitable take-over. While everyone is sparring about the facade of a UNSC Mandate. The French are demanding a short-objective(re-establish Malian Government Control over rebel-held area), maximum force, fully french-led-funded Francophone Force; the Americans want an Amisom-type confluence of Political and Military Action to address the underlying socio-political realities on the backbone of Military activity againys the rebels.

2. AU favours the American approach because it addresses the socio-politucal Matrix which threaten many of our multicultural multireligious Nations. Algeria has broken ranks with the French which is critical considering the bulk of the Tueregs are Algerian. Anglophone Africa led by Ghana and Nigeria has refused to be sidelined by the French and are pushing for an fully led and inspired African Force under AU/UNSC Mandate - which locks out the greedy French.

3. So, forward elements of ECOMOG have be in Crazy Town and Nairobi for weeks studying the Module in use. There already talk about KDF / MILOS in an "AMISOM-type" ECOMOG deployment in Mali.

It would appear the African is capable of innovation and positive activity, eh?

[mwepesi]

Rebels in Sudan's Blue Nile say tanks seized
Rebels in Sudan's Blue Nile say tanks seized
By Abdelmoneim Abu Edris Ali (AFP) – 5 hours ago
KHARTOUM — Rebels in Sudan's Blue Nile state said on Monday they had destroyed a Sudanese tank and captured two others but the army dismissed the report as propaganda while acknowledging fighting in another border region.
Both sides said they had fought in South Kordofan state despite a Khartoum-Juba deal aimed at cutting South Sudanese support for the insurgency...
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5isga0cjTHXRxHBI_I4w7Aoc5Nxmw?docId=CNG.0602af1344224b2597ffacb7a5fe3a93.31

South Sudan will take a while to start developing and uplifting its people's lives.

Soon fighting "might" break out because of other resources we all overlook one of the most important and critical resource in the world which without it there would be no life......... got a few interesting reads here.........

http://www.businessinsider.com/hacked-stratfor-emails-egypt-could-take-military-action-to-protect-its-stake-in-the-nile-2012-10

and this documentary from Aljazeera "Struggle Over the Nile"although it was kinda biased, had some interesting background info.....
http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/struggleoverthenile/

[mogen]

quote="Reuters"]Rwanda's defense minister is commanding a rebellion in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo that is being armed by Rwanda and Uganda, who also sent troops to aid the insurgency in a deadly attack on U.N. peacekeepers, according to a U.N. report. The U.N. Security Council's Group of Experts said in a confidential report that Rwanda and Uganda, despite their denials, continued to support M23 rebels in their six-month fight against Congolese government troops...[/quote]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/16/us-congo-democratic-rwanda-uganda-idUSBRE89F1CM20121016

Rwanda, I can understand. But what gain would be there for UG?

[Spartan]

quote="Reuters"]Rwanda's defense minister is commanding a rebellion in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo that is being armed by Rwanda and Uganda, who also sent troops to aid the insurgency in a deadly attack on U.N. peacekeepers, according to a U.N. report. The U.N. Security Council's Group of Experts said in a confidential report that Rwanda and Uganda, despite their denials, continued to support M23 rebels in their six-month fight against Congolese government troops...

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/16/us-congo-democratic-rwanda-uganda-idUSBRE89F1CM20121016

Rwanda, I can understand. But what gain would be there for UG?

[/quote]

If you're having trouble understanding why Uganda could support the M23 rebels, it's because it doesn't make any sense. If you do a quick cost-benefit analysis, the costs of doing so far outweigh the benefits (at least for Uganda). Just take a look at the following;
1. By supporting M23, the volume of trade between DRC and Uganda would decrease.

2. It would create a war close to the oil exploration areas in Uganda

3. More Congolese refugees would flock Uganda to strain our infrastructure, which is ironic because both the DRC soldiers and civillians are running to the country that is supposed to be fighting them.

4. The DRC government itself is taking part in the Uganda-led ICGLR initiative to resolve the differences between Rwanda and the DRC.

5. The flight of the FARC troops created a vacuum for the Ugandan ADF rebels to move closer to the Uganda border, something that is putting Uganda at risk.

But it makes a compelling story to include Uganda, seeing as we were once in the DRC. So bravo, bravo UN 'Experts'

[Guest]

quote="Reuters"]Rwanda's defense minister is commanding a rebellion in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo that is being armed by Rwanda and Uganda, who also sent troops to aid the insurgency in a deadly attack on U.N. peacekeepers, according to a U.N. report. The U.N. Security Council's Group of Experts said in a confidential report that Rwanda and Uganda, despite their denials, continued to support M23 rebels in their six-month fight against Congolese government troops...

There is not one shred of factual snippet I have seen that even remotely validate any claims about Uganda in Ituri and Kivu. This is as current as yesterday. These busybody Western-led groups hiding under UN-ambit have motives that are not too difficult to discern in whipping up world opinion against Uganda Congo and Rwanda. What not contestable is that uganda must pacify its western sector to fully bring the Albertine Oil into its economy - conflict in Ituri and North Kivu by whatever groups are the last thing Uganda needs nor would encourage at this time. Intact, it is not beyond thinking that if this situation in Eastern DRC persist further without movement towards resolution, Uganda may with justifiable cause take a direct hand in it through the UPDF - I doubt IGAD / EAC will oppose such a move. M7 is hustling the diplomacy option to justify Armed Force as a viable last option - with the concurrence of EAC, have no doubts about that.

Rwanda is another matter. Her renaissance has been build on the mineral thieving of not just from the Kivu but also through most or the DRC - thro quasiofficial conduits, DRC fronts and Western Conglomerates in the DRC. The demographics of Rwanda have settled into quiet unease only because the Kivu has become an expansion region of Rwanda, the accelerated economic progress due from the captive Eastern DRC economy, and her integration into the EAC. Without the Eastern DRC, Rwanda will unravel and spiral into ethnic bloodletting fast than... So Rwanda seeks to force either the Status Quo by whatever means or a compromise acceptance of her preeminent rights in whatever form Eastern Kivu takes.

Common knowledge that Rwanda defense Minister is a "close" relative of Kabila jnr!

[Spartan]

These busybody Western-led groups hiding under UN-ambit have motives that are not too difficult to discern in whipping up world opinion against Uganda Congo and Rwanda.

I think the UN badly needs a fall guy for its failures in the DRC, someone at state level. We can never go into any joint ops with Rwanda, at least not in the DRC therefore Ug supporting the M23 doesn't even pass the smell test.

I also suspect they want to scuttle the 4,000-strong African force for reasons that are not hard to think of.

[Guest]

These busybody Western-led groups hiding under UN-ambit have motives that are not too difficult to discern in whipping up world opinion against Uganda Congo and Rwanda.

I also suspect they want to scuttle the 4,000-strong African force for reasons that are not hard to think of.

Yap! There are very definitive whispers that the intentions are to "internationalize" the Eastern DRC in contradiction to the EAC-led process. Kinda aggravate the cannibal-like UN force in Congo whose sole achievement has been to entrench the disconnect between Kinshasa and Eastern DRC. EAC purposes is a forceful and robust re integration of the Eastern DRC to Kinshasa by AMISOM-type confluence of socio-polico-military intervention (the so-called Neutral Intervention Force).

So, the usual busy bodies go overdrive (this is the third UN report on this same matter in as many months) trashing every neighbour of the DRC with unqualified accusations of complicity so that any intervention by EAC/IGAD is ruled unacceptable internationally. ERGO - Belgian paratroopers or the French Foreign Legion with vanguard of AU Francophone Army elements take point and rearrange DRC to suit their Economic and Political Interests!

If Zoomaliya quietens considerably.......

[Spartan]

So, the usual busy bodies go overdrive (this is the third UN report on this same matter in as many months) rashing every neighbour if the DRC with unqualified accusations of complicity so that any intervention by EAC/IGAD is ruled unacceptable internationally.

Well said, bro. Also noticed that it's now three reports in a few short months about a situation on which ground is being covered by those it concerns (ICGLR countries). And there seems to be a pattern also here. The reports are almost always leaked to a media house first before official unveiling. To what end, we can only surmise.

[jasiri]

Sometimes i wonder at the effectiveness of organisations we commit ourselves to. There's the EAC Mutual Defence Pact which binds us to mutually rally around a member in need. Congo DRC is also a signatory to this treaty. It is interesting to note that one paragraph of the pre amble states that the members shall be

Mindful of the responsibility of States to protect populations from genocide, war crimes,
ethnic cleansing and crimes against humanity, and gross violations of human rights in
the Great Lakes Region;

. Eastern DRC falls into Zone 1 of the border security zones.
another interestin paragraph is thi one that says

Acts of Subversion: any act that incites, aggravates or creates dissension
within or among Member States with the intention or purpose of destabilizing or
overthrowing the existing regime or political order by, among other means,
fomenting racial, religious, linguistic, ethnic or other differences, in a manner
inconsistent with the Constitutive Act of the African Union, the African Union Non-
Aggression and Common Defence Pact, or the Charter of the United Nations.

With this digested, i think it is safe to say that what we lack is not the framework for stopping such acts but the will to do it. Cry for beloved Africa.

[mogen]

Plans to put out an international force on the ground to reclaim northern Mali from Islamists will hit a crucial stretch Friday when a high-level meeting opens in Bamako to hammer out the details.

The Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas), the African Union, the European Union and UN representatives will be hoping to finalise a clear strategy for the intervention...

http://www.africareview.com//News/High+level+meeting+on+Mali+force+set+for+Bamako+/-/979180/1536284/-/6lrld3z/-/index.html?relative=true

residents demonstrate asking for intervention force

[mogen]

These busybody Western-led groups hiding under UN-ambit have motives that are not too difficult to discern in whipping up world opinion against Uganda Congo and Rwanda.

I think the UN badly needs a fall guy for its failures in the DRC, someone at state level. We can never go into any joint ops with Rwanda, at least not in the DRC therefore Ug supporting the M23 doesn't even pass the smell test.

I also suspect they want to scuttle the 4,000-strong African force for reasons that are not hard to think of.

@Spartan & @ON

It appears pieces of the jigzaw are now falling nicely into place. UN report leaked to a media house. implicates Rwanda (+ Uganda) in the eastern DRC mess. The next fews days UNSC members are elected. Rwanda gets elected and now will sit in Council when DRC matter + Neutral Force proposal is presented there. Uganda's forceful efforts, as neighbour and Great Lakes Grouping leader, will be punctured by accusation of UG involvement in DRC mess (unfounded as allegations might be). Rwanda and others opposed to Neutral Force scuttle the effort and the looting continues. In the meantime, Uganda and the Region continue to carry burden of DRC refugee, who they can't go to Rwanda.

Devilish machinations, ehe!!

[mogen]

South Sudan's VC Riek Machar dismissed. Rumours of coup plan

http://af.reuters.com/article/topNews/idAFJOE89J00B20121020

[mogen]

Large group of armed Talban fighters wait to ambush NATO convoy. Suddenly, Apaches arrive and with their night-vision
can see both men and donkeys clearer than in daylight. Hunter becomes hunted. Now a question of who blinks first dies first.
Certainly, couldn't want to be on the receiving end.

http://www.strategypage.com/military_videos/military_photos_20120731112428.aspx

[Guest]

http://tinyurl.com/9a2csf9

In talks held in Nairobi on Friday, the two sides also established a
framework for a "commercial dialogue" that will formally get underway
late next month.

Is this good or bad for EAC/Kenyana?

[Cycoh 'DUDUS']

Plans to put out an international force on the ground to reclaim northern Mali from Islamists will hit a crucial stretch Friday when a high-level meeting opens in Bamako to hammer out the details.

The Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas), the African Union, the European Union and UN representatives will be hoping to finalise a clear strategy for the intervention...

http://www.africareview.com//News/High+level+meeting+on+Mali+force+set+for+Bamako+/-/979180/1536284/-/6lrld3z/-/index.html?relative=true

residents demonstrate asking for intervention force

http://www.nation.co.ke/News/africa/Foreign+jihadists+pour+into+northern+Mali/-/1066/1538900/-/5cfaxrz/-/index.html

This intervention requires much faith and prayer. i hope it doesn't get any worse. Heaven forbid.

[Olekoima]

A step in the right direction. All the best South Sudan:-

http://allafrica.com/stories/201210220029.html

[Olekoima]

Plans to put out an international force on the ground to reclaim northern Mali from Islamists will hit a crucial stretch Friday when a high-level meeting opens in Bamako to hammer out the details.

The Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas), the African Union, the European Union and UN representatives will be hoping to finalise a clear strategy for the intervention...

http://www.africareview.com//News/High+level+meeting+on+Mali+force+set+for+Bamako+/-/979180/1536284/-/6lrld3z/-/index.html?relative=true

residents demonstrate asking for intervention force

http://www.nation.co.ke/News/africa/Foreign+jihadists+pour+into+northern+Mali/-/1066/1538900/-/5cfaxrz/-/index.html

This intervention requires much faith and prayer. i hope it doesn't get any worse. Heaven forbid.

They need to borrow a leaf from AMISOM, study their ways and attempt to replicate applicable scenarios in Mali. They should keep the west and other spoilers at bay. African problems require African solutions.

[MOOZALENDO]

Plans to put out an international force on the ground to reclaim northern Mali from Islamists will hit a crucial stretch Friday when a high-level meeting opens in Bamako to hammer out the details.

The Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas), the African Union, the European Union and UN representatives will be hoping to finalise a clear strategy for the intervention...

http://www.africareview.com//News/High+level+meeting+on+Mali+force+set+for+Bamako+/-/979180/1536284/-/6lrld3z/-/index.html?relative=true

residents demonstrate asking for intervention force

http://www.nation.co.ke/News/africa/Foreign+jihadists+pour+into+northern+Mali/-/1066/1538900/-/5cfaxrz/-/index.html

This intervention requires much faith and prayer. i hope it doesn't get any worse. Heaven forbid.

They need to borrow a leaf from AMISOM, study their ways and attempt to replicate applicable scenarios in Mali. They should keep the west and other spoilers at bay. African problems require African solutions.

So much care is required and even when the most stringent steps have been taken to avoid mishaps, shit happens sometimes. Studying AMISOM approach is wise but also they should be prepared for anything as it were.

We'll wait and see.

For interest's sake: A peculiar occurrence some decades back which haunts people today!

Have a look...http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-18689132

Mooz

[mogen]

Fears of new Tora Bora in northern Somalia: Shebab bolster mountain bases

Somalia's Al-Qaeda linked Shebab insurgents are on the back foot, reeling from a string of losses as they battle a 17,000-strong African Union force as well as Ethiopian troops and Somali forces. Like Taliban who retreated to Tora Bora mountains to lick their wounds, Shebab are pulling back to mountain bases in northern Galgala region...

More of the story is at http://www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=55063

Question is:Why allow them to regroup and rearm?

[Olekoima]

Fears of new Tora Bora in northern Somalia: Shebab bolster mountain bases

Somalia's Al-Qaeda linked Shebab insurgents are on the back foot, reeling from a string of losses as they battle a 17,000-strong African Union force as well as Ethiopian troops and Somali forces. Like Taliban who retreated to Tora Bora mountains to lick their wounds, Shebab are pulling back to mountain bases in northern Galgala region...

More of the story is at http://www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=55063

Question is:Why allow them to regroup and rearm?

AMISOM troops need to resort to aerial warfare and bomb the mountaneous area to glory. These goons must not be allowed to regroup.

[Sponsored content]