Re: Kenya Defence Forces (KDF)

mogen Wed May 16 2012, 16:05

Why is Uganda fighting Al Shabaab?

"If Somalia is unstable, Kenya is unstable. And if Kenya's unstable, then we are unstable, first and foremost." --Col Kulayigye

from the BBC: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-16853499

jasiri Sat May 19 2012, 21:52

Something funny happening in Somalia, are people getting tired of KDF procrastination?

The commander of Ethiopia's military in Somalia stated that it is not a problem for his military to capture Kismayo a stronghold of Al Shabaab

“Around the date we captured Baidoa from Al Shabab militants, Kenyan troops were to do the same with Kismayo, but I don’t know what went wrong with the plan

http://www.garoweonline.com/artman2/publish/Somalia_27/Somalia_Ethiopia_commander_in_Somalia_says_not_a_problem_to_liberate_Kismayo.shtml

jasiri Sat May 19 2012, 21:58

So it now seems that the choke on Chismayo is getting tighter. This will be one of the most lethal theatres for our warriors. With the present threat of snipers, IEDs, Suicide bombers (vehicular and personnel) etc, this is the question i pose to those in theatre or in the know
1. Given that only officers are equipped with the Armalite AR-15 carbine(5.56mm NATO) and regulars with the venerable G3A3(7.62mm) what will be our overall effectiveness in CQB scenarios? The Rangers and other SF groups won’t be exclusive in Chismayo right?
2. In urban warfare the militia has an advantage by virtue of knowing the environment inside out and scouting for vantage points before hand. This presents a deadly challenge to our troops as they could literary get picked out in the streets down below by an enemy who can shoot and scoot to another point. We can not assume that the troops will fight from within the confines of MRAPs and APCs, when they dismount what equipment do they have to mask their movement? Will we be having Vickers/T-72s/Panhards laying smoke screens for them?
3. Al-Shabab has clearly displayed its ability to hit troop convoys with vehicles packed with explosives. The 5.56mm round on the AR-15 has shown in Iraq that it is incapable of stopping an oncoming vehicle packed with explosives, judging by the attacks on Ethiopian and now AMISOM bases in Muqdisho and recently the Ethiopians in Bay and Bakool regions I am assuming neither can the 7.62mm round (even though the AK is x39mm and the G3 is x51mm) will this then mean that we have to carry different calibre weapons in a squad to ensure survivability?
4. Since this is an urban theatre, fire support from Tigers will be non-existent so as to minimise on blue-on-blue and civilian casualties. Does this then mean we will see the entry of the big guns (Tanks) into theatre? Personally i think the 125mm and the 105mm guns in our tanks are just too powerful for Kismayu.
5. Somali militiamen are known to be very good marksmen, is the type of armour worn by our troops sufficient? I am not talking about them using amour piercing rounds (hio najua hawana) but rather them shooting for the neck, groin etc
A question specifically for the ground hogs (Spartan, Crane, Nkarei, Mjeshi and that dude in Afghanistan whose name escapes me) How wise is it to take cover behind an armoured vehicle clad with ERA?
Answer only what you safely can for the sake of soldiers on the front and salaries at home.

Batian Sun May 20 2012, 13:05

I do not understand why all this posturing from an experienced Ethiopian major General, would be necessary and of importance to the success of Somali liberalization as it is showing signs of reaching the home-stretch.
Scenario 1 Judging from the timeline since foreign armies staged incursions in Somalia, It took more than four bloody years for UGABAG while loosing soldiers in its line of defense, to showcase to the world that it has successfully curved a peaceful landscape in Mogadishu. The only mistake and trap they are blindly setting themselves in is they are not actively involved in shaping the dynamics of politics in Mogadishu. Which means they might brace themselves for a long fight. The sparsely spate of terror attacks witnessed on Somalia government soldiers/officials in Mogadishu by AS jihadists is testament to this. At least now, UGABAG is learning there is more ground-work to be done in addition to deploying a successful urban-warfare-strategy. KDF on the other hand is fighting on two fronts. Working actively to master the political dynamics and strategies, within the areas liberated which I know is significantly bearing fruit, while combating extremists.
Scenario2 If major Gen John from Ethiopia is serious that his statement is credible, they should learn from history. Why do operations in Somalia look like a marathon race involving Kenya vs Ethiopia? They are poised well to learn from history since they were the ones who started doing all the dirty work. They could not finish it without further learning the hard way that history was against them. The enemy was bigger than they had foreseen. And they had to swiftly retreat without the option of re-strategizing for a future incursion, until there was a regional effort.
Scenario3As opposed to most media reports, its seems the fall of Kisimayu will be smoother, contrary to most opinions. From such indicative signs like this Extremist escaping; it seems the region is ultimately preparing for its deathbed. It is no secret that the falling of Afmadhow Hosingow and all other towns liberated under KDF is symbolic of the falling of Kisimayu. Bado "chai ni Kisimayu" ama vipi?

Efrommers

jasiri Sun May 20 2012, 15:58

Ethiopians have never been known to be prudent in their combat decision. They are too much stick and no carrot n in Somalia, a place scared by decades of conflict, there's little u can threaten them with. I think the military planners in KDF n the occupants of 'that little secret office' as Nkarei calls it have found a solution to the Chismayo stalemate. Previously, we were split between Abdi Mohammed Islam a.k.a Sheikh Abdi Madoobe and Mohammed Abdi Mohammed a.k.a Proff. Ghandi each one commanded his support and each one, i bet, promised hell should they not have the big seat at Chismayo. Then all of a sudden Barre Adan Hiiraale is released from Ethiopian detention. For those not in the know, Col. Hiiraale wass the commander of the Juba Valley Alliance. This alliance under Hiraale's leadership was responsible for governing the whole of Juba region Chismayo included from the year 1998. this was until 2006 when the forces of ICU routed him from the port city. He made a comeback with the help of the Ethiopians but the very same hands that put him on the seat later jailed him. He has a reputation as a willy tactician n a skilled administrator but best of all he is from the Marehaan (or Mareexaan) clan, this clan also has Farah Maalim and Yusuf Hadji (and numerous seniors in our Defence Forces) as it's members. Me thinks this is the trump card K.D.F has been waiting to flash. Should this guy agree to tow the line, which i see no problem in him agreeing, we may very well have our first governor of Chismayo post K.D.F

Risasi Sun May 20 2012, 18:39

They are a big difference in entering kismayu and having kismayu under our thumb. I believe your all familiar with that, but if you like more clarification I ready to.

At the moment KDF now referred to as jeshi la ulinizi , is discussion (covertly)with members of the enemy side of a peaceful change of leader ship hands; back stabbing and assignation on the front option. The top brass would prefer a submission by the enemy rather then a bloody fire exchange. We have the cap.and intel. To take this town but the more lifes saved either side KDF or AS the better and peace future we have living in Kismayo says a mission planner.

Results
a. group of AS ready to relinquish for financial gains, asylum, business rights, self autonomy, governance incorporation.
b. group of AS ready to relinquish if Mr. A, B, C will no longer exist either through assignation or defeated through KDF incursion.
c. 7 virgins die hard,

Lesson learnt they are internal division in the internal structure of the AS.

kimiti Sun May 20 2012, 21:19

Risasi wrote:They are a big difference in entering kismayu and having kismayu under our thumb. I believe your all familiar with that, but if you like more clarification I ready to.

At the moment KDF now referred to as jeshi la ulinizi , is discussion (covertly)with members of the enemy side of a peaceful change of leader ship hands; back stabbing and assignation on the front option. The top brass would prefer a submission by the enemy rather then a bloody fire exchange. We have the cap.and intel. To take this town but the more lifes saved either side KDF or AS the better and peace future we have living in Kismayo says a mission planner.

Results
a. group of AS ready to relinquish for financial gains, asylum, business rights, self autonomy, governance incorporation.
b. group of AS ready to relinquish if Mr. A, B, C will no longer exist either through assignation or defeated through KDF incursion.
c. 7 virgins die hard,

Lesson learnt they are internal division in the internal structure of the AS.

thanks guys for resurrecting this thread.
Quite frankly, I think KDF should have done the homework a long time before now. I know there are sharp guys in there but all the same.....
The fight in Somali is not a war, its more like the crime ridden neighbourhood that the police try to clean up. there is the option of shooting all the suspects and the option of giving them options. the prudent way is community policing. identify who is the top dog and give him props to prepare the way for governing, when the rest are done away with, its easy to deal with one and even mould him.

I wish all the East African soldiers in Somali a safe return home.

jasiri Mon May 21 2012, 11:00

the 7 virgins die hards. we may have to get a few Indians in there to bargain with them.

Guest Mon May 21 2012, 14:15

Two very simplistic pieces ''providing critical assessment of AMISOM effectiveness'' were given to me a while ago, which I find to be simply gutter journalism purveying impressions of intellectualism in Journalism. Even Obbo’s piece recently, which though full of cleverly manipulated conjecture and fantasy, stands miles ahead of the one by Rasna Warah in terms of imagination and journalistic flair – is such a thing exists. It insults the collective intelligence of Kenyans that we are subjected to such mambo jambo, really. KDF jumped into Somalia to wage war on a faceless enemy that threatened our very survival as a Socio-politico-economical entity. And only in consequence to manifestation of a Real and Present Threat - all other alternatives for managing this formless Somalia Conflict over the past twenty years had dismally failed – a fact that Rasna conveniently disregards from the lofty perch upon which she writes this shallow piece. No Philanthropic grand justifications, purely National Interests. Even so, a purely Military initiative cannot show resilient success in this theatre, having been tried repeatedly by a multiplicity of players in the past without tangible and conclusive benefit – and the Ethiopians have repeated the same pedestrian strategic errors of their first Somali Deployment with the same results increasing looking probable – an eventual withdrawal with their tails between their legs and body bags clogging their National Psyche. The fight in Somali is not a War in the sense it – it has neither ideology nor nationalistic pretentions. It is formless, lacks character and definition – Al Shabaab could easily be ASWJ by distinction. It is internecine in tactical development and history. In simple terms, to quote @Kimiti, it’s akin to a heavily ""crime ridden neighborhood that is desperate for heavy Police clean-up, in which the only option is either shooting all or as many of the suspect criminals or alternatively throwing down the option of ‘’giving them options’’ the Patrict Shaw way – ‘’get out of town or get out of crime’’!! . Ergo -. Enlist the Community into the risks and benefits of failure and success, by encouraging upon introspective dialogue, ‘community policing’’, providing social alternatives and extending civilian authority in social programs no matter how rudimentary in the situation appertaining of insecurity and chaos, etc. Such has been KDF Modus Operandis and is what will break the perpetual circle of this Somalia Conflict by eliminating communal losers and winners, and is what the Ethiopians in their ham-fisted methods are failing to do; from the frequency of AlShabaab direct or indirect, attacks upon the ENDF with a growing casualty rate in the Ethiopian Sector-command, lies the genesis of bogging the rest of us down in a conflict maelstrom that has become enculturalized in Somalia. Ethiopia departure from Somalia would be as if they were never in Somalia in the first place but for the Coffins sent home of their boys lost in Somalia! This fella we broke out of ENDF jaws last week opens some real possibilities, lets see how this plays out. Long haul, No quick humping, guys Laughing

. Somalia will always be our eastern neighbor beyond a testosterone-led assault of Kismayo, with population dynamics very much akin to our own North Eastern Province. That is the long term view, gentlemen!!

cylon Tue May 22 2012, 05:23

i hear that 4 KDF soldiers were injured in an IED attack in mandera i think the government should give APC's to the police and soldiers patroling our border posts so we can limit these types of attacks

Analyst Tue May 22 2012, 09:18

Would it be wrong to project......that ...Since KDF stopped their military role and took up AU-UN led instructions, Al-Shabaab has found both breathing space and gained a lot of clout. They have regrouped and found new military bases including Mudug and Galgala, besides making a strategic comeback to Mogadishu suburbs.

Guest Tue May 22 2012, 10:00

ole Nkarei wrote:Two very simplistic pieces ''providing critical assessment of AMISOM effectiveness'' were given to me a while ago, which I find to be simply gutter journalism purveying impressions of intellectualism in Journalism. Even Obbo’s piece recently, which though full of cleverly manipulated conjecture and fantasy, stands miles ahead of the one by Rasna Warah in terms of imagination and journalistic flair – is such a thing exists. It insults the collective intelligence of Kenyans that we are subjected to such mambo jambo, really. KDF jumped into Somalia to wage war on a faceless enemy that threatened our very survival as a Socio-politico-economical entity. And only in consequence to manifestation of a Real and Present Threat - all other alternatives for managing this formless Somalia Conflict over the past twenty years had dismally failed – a fact that Rasna conveniently disregards from the lofty perch upon which she writes this shallow piece. No Philanthropic grand justifications, purely National Interests. Even so, a purely Military initiative cannot show resilient success in this theatre, having been tried repeatedly by a multiplicity of players in the past without tangible and conclusive benefit – and the Ethiopians have repeated the same pedestrian strategic errors of their first Somali Deployment with the same results increasing looking probable – an eventual withdrawal with their tails between their legs and body bags clogging their National Psyche. The fight in Somali is not a War in the sense it – it has neither ideology nor nationalistic pretentions. It is formless, lacks character and definition – Al Shabaab could easily be ASWJ by distinction. It is internecine in tactical development and history. In simple terms, to quote @Kimiti, it’s akin to a heavily ""crime ridden neighborhood that is desperate for heavy Police clean-up, in which the only option is either shooting all or as many of the suspect criminals or alternatively throwing down the option of ‘’giving them options’’ the Patrict Shaw way – ‘’get out of town or get out of crime’’!! . Ergo -. Enlist the Community into the risks and benefits of failure and success, by encouraging upon introspective dialogue, ‘community policing’’, providing social alternatives and extending civilian authority in social programs no matter how rudimentary in the situation appertaining of insecurity and chaos, etc. Such has been KDF Modus Operandis and is what will break the perpetual circle of this Somalia Conflict by eliminating communal losers and winners, and is what the Ethiopians in their ham-fisted methods are failing to do; from the frequency of AlShabaab direct or indirect, attacks upon the ENDF with a growing casualty rate in the Ethiopian Sector-command, lies the genesis of bogging the rest of us down in a conflict maelstrom that has become enculturalized in Somalia. Ethiopia departure from Somalia would be as if they were never in Somalia in the first place but for the Coffins sent home of their boys lost in Somalia! This fella we broke out of ENDF jaws last week opens some real possibilities, lets see how this plays out. Long haul, No quick humping, guys :lol: :lol: . Somalia will always be our eastern neighbor beyond a testosterone-led assault of Kismayo, with population dynamics very much akin to our own North Eastern Province. That is the long term view, gentlemen!!

This is a rather strongly worded attack on Rasna Warah for expressing what - let's face it - most Kenyans are thinking today. It is taking a sledgehammer to a fly, which is always suspect. Though one may disagree with her conclusions and analyses, there is nothing "gutter" about her journalism. Gutter journalism gives us headlines such as "Grandmother Marries Cousin's Donkey."

Rasna Warah has attempted to connect the dots with the limited information out there and is careful enough to furnish her article with conditionals such as "we were told" and "apparently" and "allegedly" and "according to," etcetera. The fact is that without Oguna's weekly briefings, KDF's traditional shroud of secrecy has descended upon OLN, leaving the door wide open to speculation. Yet the only speculation I could identify in her entire article goes thus:

"It appears that the military decision to take Kismayu was politically and economically motivated, and coincided with the Kenya-supported Azania project, which itself is fraught with difficulties."

We have speculated the same here on this forum. And note the conditional "appears." The remainder of her article is a compilation of accounts and descriptions as have been presented to the general public over weeks and months and which have not been repudiated by any arm of GoK. The public therefore assumes them to be accurate.

A far more effective method of "news management" would be for GoK to be more forthcoming with information regarding the OLN theatre. The caveat that KDF no longer holds Amisom's public information docket may be valid but will not do much to ameliorate the situation. Wanjiku, after all, is entitled to know what her taxes are doing, why her brothers are falling and when she might expect grenades to stop being lopped at her, regardless of the fact that information from Somalia is now being handled by some military officer from Burundi.

Any war - and in this case, our first war in decades - will be subject to public scrutiny. The public demands to know, and journalists will respond to those demands. I find a strong patriotic flair in Rasna's contention that

...I was among those Kenyans who believed that the country held the moral high ground when it took the decision to protect its northern neighbour from the clutches of Al Shabaab...

and and equal sense of patriotism in her disappointment:

...Now I am not so sure...

Might I suggest that GoK/KDF adopt a more active role in engaging the press on OLN, explain to them what you have explained to us above and set the record straight. There is an entire population eagerly waiting for such and a patriotic press which, I am sure, will show their full appreciation. Journalist-bashing will only serve to marshal sympathy for the journalist.

And the pen, as we all know, is far mightier than the sword.

Batian Tue May 22 2012, 14:13

Analyst wrote:
Would it be wrong to project......that ...Since KDF stopped their military role and took up AU-UN led instructions, Al-Shabaab has found both breathing space and gained a lot of clout. They have regrouped and found new military bases including Mudug and Galgala, besides making a strategic comeback to Mogadishu suburbs.

Al Shebaab as it would seem, have regrouped at puntland. Those are suggestions from media reports. Right now

mogen Tue May 22 2012, 15:17

Vitruvian wrote:
Might I suggest that GoK/KDF adopt a more active role in engaging the press on OLN, explain to them what you have explained to us above and set the record straight. There is an entire population eagerly waiting for such and a patriotic press which, I am sure, will show their full appreciation.

And the pen, as we all know, is far mightier than the sword.

@Vitruvian
Well said. The people need Col Oguna's weekly briefings. When KDF and/or AMISOM fail to inform people on what is happening the vacuum will be filled by others including professional storytellers, journalists, AS and their sympathisers. It is disastrous.

jasiri Tue May 22 2012, 15:29

Al Shebaab as it would seem, have regrouped at puntland. Those are suggestions from media reports. Right now

some time ago, i asked about the implication of Al-shabab alliance with the GalGala militia. No one answered.
The Ethiopians look pretty dead set on Chismayo, or is it pilling pressure on K.D.F? http://www.thenewstribe.com/2012/05/22/ethiopian-military-to-increase-assault-against-al-shabab/#.T7uE9OgtiKs

kimiti Tue May 22 2012, 16:36

[/quote] some time ago, i asked about the implication of Al-shabab alliance with the GalGala militia. No one answered.
The Ethiopians look pretty dead set on Chismayo, or is it pilling pressure on K.D.F? http://www.thenewstribe.com/2012/05/22/ethiopian-military-to-increase-assault-against-al-shabab/#.T7uE9OgtiKs[/quote]

I think this chest thumping by the Ethiopians will do no one no good. They have at one time taken Mogadishu only for them to retreat without completely getting the job done hence presence of UPDF and Burundi in that theater at the moment. I think they are glory seekers and want to show that they have military that gets things done (does it?).
They should stay away from mogadishu and Kismayu and concentrate their efforts elsewhere.

Batian Tue May 22 2012, 17:06

jasiri wrote:

Al Shebaab as it would seem, have regrouped at puntland. Those are suggestions from media reports. Right now
some time ago, i asked about the implication of Al-shabab alliance with the GalGala militia. No one answered.
The Ethiopians look pretty dead set on Chismayo, or is it pilling pressure on K.D.F? http://www.thenewstribe.com/2012/05/22/ethiopian-military-to-increase-assault-against-al-shabab/#.T7uE9OgtiKs

@Jasiri,

This is just normal posturing. Why should there be such a mighty rush for Kisimayu. Them Ethiopian kangaroo army, if they are really interested in wiping out al-shabaab completely from the face of the earth, should set their sights at punt-land. That is where Al-shabaab is currently regrouping. The significant mileage they have gained is without doubt a consequence of ground and air assault efforts by KDF troops. This is what has pressured Al-shabaab into partial submission in the sourthern sector. If this in not true, then their past solo effort incursion would be successful. Their well-documented error-filled incursion, was a great disaster. Their operation was also meant to be a "quick one" and withdraw its troops from central Somalia. Seems there are people who are trying to fool us here. The question one would ask is what has now changed? Remember they are forgetting Alshabaab are not dead yet. The more they assert their reason for entering Somalia, the more they will make progress. But I've seen such intrigues are set to draw much needed praise from abroad to push the west into validating the extended time-frame for their incursion. His excellency Meles is under pressure from home to withdraw troops as fast as possible and also to have an influence on events in Somalia. He is torn between this two choices. Why, does it look as if their is a deadline now? This ultimately shows KDF operations are independent. I was also amazed by an article by a crazy Ugandan writer on the the East African Newspaper, who glorifies the massive death of UGABAG soldiers (number currently standing @ over 400) at the battle-field theater in Mogadishu.

As we have witnessed overtime, others operations seem to be driven by unknown external factors. I tell you guys the fall of Kisimayu is imminent; I read they are not understanding the Kenyan operation and its better it stays so at the moment. These to me are just ordinary suspicions like the cooperation between the
controversial Ras-kamboni brigade with KDF. All the Militia supposedly cooperating with KDF since its incursion are terrorist. As this excerpt would
suggest, Galgala militia has a splinter group in its rank that affiliates itself with AS not as strategic or tactical but as a rebellious move that seems eventually inconsequential. Galgala_Militia_Disagree_with_Shabaab_Alliance_

[/quote]
Prime Minister Zenawi last month, stated that his troops would leave
Somalia as soon as the threat of Al Shabaab diminishes. Analysts who
spoke to Garowe Online said that both countries especially Kenya who has
never deployed troops to Somalia, may have underestimated Al Shabaab.
[quote]

This is the wrong way to express military superiority. People are not stupid any longer. All successful achievements will be observed as events carefully unfold on the battle-ground.

SS Jamuhuri Tue May 22 2012, 18:03

Hello guys.. well ive been watching the conversations around here from the side lines and i couldn't help notice something that asserted my suspicions.. my 2 scents knowledge tells me that the KDF actually stalled the attacks on A.S because of various social aspects.
I think that the KDF realized the complex nature of the Society of the people in Som and decided to minimize the attacks and learn the way of life led by the somali people.. I believe this coz of Bullet man's remark about the AWACS formed by the Som's as a way of looking out for any Ariel attacks.. the study has taken quite some time; thus, it enables them to understand the weaknesses that can aid in the capture of kismayu.. i believe the recon xercises have paid of and strategists are analyzing the social situation and looking at ways of manipulating it for their advantage...thats just but my 2 piece..

mbs Tue May 22 2012, 20:54

kimiti wrote:

some time ago, i asked about the implication of Al-shabab alliance with the GalGala militia. No one answered.
The Ethiopians look pretty dead set on Chismayo, or is it pilling pressure on K.D.F? http://www.thenewstribe.com/2012/05/22/ethiopian-military-to-increase-assault-against-al-shabab/#.T7uE9OgtiKs[/quote]

I think this chest thumping by the Ethiopians will do no one no good. They have at one time taken Mogadishu only for them to retreat without completely getting the job done hence presence of UPDF and Burundi in that theater at the moment. I think they are glory seekers and want to show that they have military that gets things done (does it?).
They should stay away from mogadishu and Kismayu and concentrate their efforts elsewhere.[/quote] That is News intended for Ethiopias Public consumption; Basically to tell them that they are on top of the Game in Somalia. The Ethiopian military strategists are not as dumb as some of us would like to potray them to be, why would they kill the duck that lays the golden egg now, when they could do it a year or even two from now and get all the benefits associated with fighting 'war on terror'. You think its a mystery why Museveni and his Generals cant seem to trace the LRA top guy ? They need him as much as he needs him to prolong the war and benefit from it. The reason why KDF jumped the tail could be some moron in the World wanted to control the natural resources in that country without sharing the spoils with them. could be Turkey who are very eager to plant themselves in Somalia since they might not be getting their cheap oil from Iran. Could end up like Haiti, where the UN are still on the ground despite the earthquake coming and going ages ago. everyone benefits, and I see KDF not going to Kismayu anytime soon, unless it is to their benefit; maybe after the General Elections

mogen Wed May 23 2012, 04:24

KDF is being made to look ugly and journalists can actually deal devastating blows to an outfit or operation if not handled properly.
Check this:

"Tuesday 22 May 2012: Kenya’s security forces losing the battle for Somali hearts and minds
By RASNA WARAH - I am glad that Charles Onyango-Obbo had the gumption to ask the “elephant-in-the room” question in his report on military actions in Somalia published in the EastAfrican last week...
http://www.keydmedia.net/en/article/article/kenyas_security_forces_losing_the_battle_for_somali_hearts_and_minds/ "
KDF is effectively being likened to AS. That's the implication but nothing could be further from the truth. A reply, I mean a blow-by-blow reply is warranted and KDF/AMISOM must resume regular briefings to counter or prevent disinformation. There are no two ways to the matter.

@mbs. you are right. Prime Minister Zenawi's message is for local consumption and the reasons are obvious.

Risasi Wed May 23 2012, 09:12

@SS Jamuhuri. Thanks for the cover. I have explained it before; I wouldn’t mind explain it again in plain and simple English. Wachana na hiyo maneno ya media.

The AS has establishment (communities living a normal life, cattle, goat herds etc) as far as 50Km out side the said towns which act as a forward looking and warning system for the AS against advancing KDF airborne or ground assets towards those towns, what I dub as AWACS.

A forceful thrust (the Ethiopia way) to the towns will result to unnecessary blood shade and a truly loss of hearts and minds from both sides. futher more after a forceful thrust, permanent animosity between the occupier and the occupant will have laid its foundation . i.e Afghan vs NATO way. This will lead to spiral attacks from both sides and the main objective of the operation, pacifying the region, gets far fetched. Lets leave all option open at the moment, we could even encourage them to perform region election, choose their local Gov,t etc. in order to maintain the object PEACE. it needs time and persuading and not over night events. we are not in for glory but for a definite purpose.
Concurrently as talks go on, covert planners establish establishment and confidantes in their hierarchy as all options are still open on the table.

Recce patrols from guys like ON go on to study the enemy position and Comm, look for dark areas in the establishment, create friendly and green zones, get a feel of how quick the AWACS respond to a ready status, who is communicating to who and harsh harsh ( http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-15725632) plans and techs gets incorporated in our plans of things .

I don,t see what wrong with that.

The region hasn’t seen peace for decades; other force has been on the country for plus 2 years with no success surely we can wait a few more months

Spartan Wed May 23 2012, 10:55

Risasi wrote:The region hasn’t seen peace for decades; other force has been on the country for plus 2 years with no success surely we can wait a few more months

Thing is, AMISOM doesn't have years to be in Somalia. The overcautious approach of KDF is beginning to stretch Kenyans' patience and explanations can only go so far. Granted, loss of life is regrettable anytime, but those weapons and bombs are not meant to shoot at trees and rocks, they are for killing and defending oneself.

KDF in the past has been training and arming the likes of Ras Kamboni (which I doubt will continue now that OLN is under AMISOM), how and where have they helped?

jasiri Wed May 23 2012, 11:00

@Risasi, is it possible to jam the mobile the mobile frequency this guys are using? If we jam them for fun a couple of times by the time we go in for a mission they will be thoroughly confused.

kimiti Wed May 23 2012, 11:42

Spartan wrote:

Thing is, AMISOM doesn't have years to be in Somalia. The overcautious approach of KDF is beginning to stretch Kenyans' patience and explanations can only go so far. Granted, loss of life is regrettable anytime, but those weapons and bombs are not meant to shoot at trees and rocks, they are for killing and defending oneself.

KDF in the past has been training and arming the likes of Ras Kamboni (which I doubt will continue now that OLN is under AMISOM), how and where have they helped?

I believe that clobbering people is not the best way to achieve peace. you at some point have to go down to them and ask them how they want to live their lives. It is a very wise move to go to them and ask them while skipping the clobbering part. it of course helps to have a heavy hand over them and tell them in case they don't behave shit can happen. as you might know choice is an illusion that we indulge ourselves to feel self important hence the need of Ras Kemboni to protect some interests.

What am saying is, Amisom will most def not be the occupying army, who then will if you move in kill as many as you can then leave. you are only creating more die hard kebaabs. If i recall, Al-kebab is a result of Ethiopia moving in, dismantling I.C.U. and moving out without much thought to the results of their actions; and here we are at the moment.

Do it right the first time.

Guest Wed May 23 2012, 12:32

mogen wrote:KDF is being made to look ugly and journalists can actually deal devastating blows to an outfit or operation if not handled properly.
Check this:

That is just it, @Mogen. Nothing as dangerous as a subversive Journalist with an audience - am sure Vitruvian will agree to this at the least despite his scathing riposte to my post above Smile

. I have tried to make contact with this ‘journalist’ without success, and not even my written rejoinder to her awkward piece has elicited any response from her. I know for a fact she has open lines into KDoD and could easily validate her information without prejudicing her sources but she apparent choose not to. One must speculate for whom the article was written and to what ends - judging from the wide media spectrum it has been quoted in full. Nevertheless, it gives little comfort to AS whose sunset came and went. Al-Kebab is done!

There is huge AS assets (human and Equipment) tied down to defend Kismayo/Afmadow sector against an anticipated KDF thrust into AS main resources base, re-deployed from Benadir, Bay, Bakool and Middle Shabelle Provinces. Net results has been an huge reduction of the AS footprint and AS aggressor-capabilities in those provinces. Generally speaking, time does not work for AS in the circumstances they find themselves presently which has allowed for National Dialogue to develop without AS, increasingly rendering it irrelevant to the Somalian Question. AS is desperate for a quick-fix-type bloodbath in Kismayo! Now, depending on the justifications for engagement in Somalia, which clearly ENDF and KDF/UPDF are divergent, the present implosion in AS has different implications. Kenya’s Strategic Objectives remain unchanged – a stable, secure, malleable, integrated buffer zone from Wajir to Indian Ocean through Baidoa. Meles needs to stay engaged in Somalia post-Kismayo to retain control in his Ogaden, and needs to influence the composition of Administration of Southern Juba post Kismayo in this same sector – therefore ENDF be coopted into the taking of Kismayo.

As concerns the AS home-grown imaginative AWACs the Bullet man has well explained here, there has been radical simulations along the approaches into ‘’Tea Cup town’’ by Delta Recon teams in tandem with aggressor AirCalv now for weeks, to force a break of cover of their forward-observer elements, and take out some of these / then seed in our own hummint along this delicate warning chain and into Kismayo itself – volunteers only stuff. Like @Jas has said above, randomized probing of this ingenious system to triangulate locations, numbers and cadres, frequencies, methodology, etc. When the word comes down to go in , we WILL go in.

@Spartan, buddy, Rasna and a few others are Kenyans, granted, but amongst millions of other Kenyans. It is not inconceivable that a very sophisticated ‘’Fifth Column’’ exists in Kenya, no? A pinch of snuff at a time is prudent, I reckon.Waaacha, bana!!

Guest Wed May 23 2012, 12:40

kimiti wrote:
Spartan wrote:

Thing is, AMISOM doesn't have years to be in Somalia. The overcautious approach of KDF is beginning to stretch Kenyans' patience and explanations can only go so far. Granted, loss of life is regrettable anytime, but those weapons and bombs are not meant to shoot at trees and rocks, they are for killing and defending oneself.

KDF in the past has been training and arming the likes of Ras Kamboni (which I doubt will continue now that OLN is under AMISOM), how and where have they helped?

I believe that clobbering people is not the best way to achieve peace. you at some point have to go down to them and ask them how they want to live their lives. It is a very wise move to go to them and ask them while skipping the clobbering part. it of course helps to have a heavy hand over them and tell them in case they don't behave shit can happen. as you might know choice is an illusion that we indulge ourselves to feel self important hence the need of Ras Kemboni to protect some interests.

What am saying is, Amisom will most def not be the occupying army, who then will if you move in kill as many as you can then leave. you are only creating more die hard kebaabs. If i recall, Al-kebab is a result of Ethiopia moving in, dismantling I.C.U. and moving out without much thought to the results of their actions; and here we are at the moment.

Do it right the first time.

You need to distinguish between a Somali civilian population and an Al Shabaab militia. A few months back, the civilians were very happy that we were clobbering Al Shabaab. Very happy. Songs of praise and ululation. It brought an end to beheadings, hand-chopping, flogging and press-gangs. It reintroduced medicines, education and civilian administration. And peace.
Ask Al Shabaab how Somali's should live their lives? I don't think so. Blast Al Shabaab to smithereens? Absolutely.

Guest Wed May 23 2012, 12:53

ole Nkarei wrote:
mogen wrote:KDF is being made to look ugly and journalists can actually deal devastating blows to an outfit or operation if not handled properly.
Check this:

That is just it, @Mogen. Nothing as dangerous as a subversive Journalist with an audience - am sure Vitruvian will agree to this at the least despite his scathing riposte to my post above :) . I have tried to make contact with this ‘journalist’ without success, and not even my written rejoinder to her awkward piece has elicited any response from her. I know for a fact she has open lines into KDoD and could easily validate her information without prejudicing her sources but she apparent choose not to. One must speculate for whom the article was written and to what ends - judging from the wide media spectrum it has been quoted in full. Nevertheless, it gives little comfort to AS whose sunset came and went. Al-Kebab is done!

There is huge AS assets (human and Equipment) tied down to defend Kismayo/Afmadow sector against an anticipated KDF thrust into AS main resources base, re-deployed from Benadir, Bay, Bakool and Middle Shabelle Provinces. Net results has been an huge reduction of the AS footprint and AS aggressor-capabilities in those provinces. Generally speaking, time does not work for AS in the circumstances they find themselves presently which has allowed for National Dialogue to develop without AS, increasingly rendering it irrelevant to the Somalian Question. AS is desperate for a quick-fix-type bloodbath in Kismayo! Now, depending on the justifications for engagement in Somalia, which clearly ENDF and KDF/UPDF are divergent, the present implosion in AS has different implications. Kenya’s Strategic Objectives remain unchanged – a stable, secure, malleable, integrated buffer zone from Wajir to Indian Ocean through Baidoa. Meles needs to stay engaged in Somalia post-Kismayo to retain control in his Ogaden, and needs to influence the composition of Administration of Southern Juba post Kismayo in this same sector – therefore ENDF be coopted into the taking of Kismayo.

As concerns the AS home-grown imaginative AWACs the Bullet man has well explained here, there has been radical simulations along the approaches into ‘’Tea Cup town’’ by Delta Recon teams in tandem with aggressor AirCalv now for weeks, to force a break of cover of their forward-observer elements, and take out some of these / then seed in our own hummint along this delicate warning chain and into Kismayo itself – volunteers only stuff. Like @Jas has said above, randomized probing of this ingenious system to triangulate locations, numbers and cadres, frequencies, methodology, etc. When the word comes down to go in , we WILL go in.

@Spartan, buddy, Rasna and a few others are Kenyans, granted, but amongst millions of other Kenyans. It is not inconceivable that a very sophisticated ‘’fifth element’’ exists in Kenya, no? A pinch of snuff at a time is prudent, I reckon.Waaacha, bana!!

Scathing riposte, Tom? No, you are too sensitive and perhaps just a tad intolerant. Scathing was your critique of Rasna Warah. I was just attempting to bring some balance to the equation, introduce a perspective you had perhaps not considered. And whereas I agree with you on the dangers of a subversive commentator, I hardly think Rasna Warah is one. She is not the enemy. Whereas we must be vigilant, we cannot afford to start seeing enemies around every corner. We know where that leads.

jasiri Wed May 23 2012, 13:04

with Al-Shabab concentrating their troops in Chismayo doesn't this present an operational challenge for them and opportunites for us?
1. various factions within Kebab are commanded by various commanders with diverging interests. poke n probe, find the weak one, break the plan
2. communication. if this war will c the use of electronic warfare then the kebab are screwed. how do u coordinate such a large mass of in disciplined, ill motivated, ill trained militia?
3. the kebabs are like safari ants (Siafu) wherever they are, they antagonise the locals. This may work to their disadvantage. if they are in such large numbers then the locals may be more willing and receptive of a Chismayo take over than any other time.

Guest Wed May 23 2012, 13:14

Vitruvian wrote:

Scathing ..you are too sensitive and perhaps just a tad intolerant. Scathing was your critique of Rasna Warah. I was just attempting to bring some balance to the equation, introduce a perspective you had perhaps not considered. And whereas I agree with you on the dangers of a subversive commentator, I hardly think Rasna Warah is one. She is not the enemy. Whereas we must be vigilant, we cannot afford to start seeing enemies around every corner. We know where that leads.

Nicci, I am not going to risk our friendship with a head-to-head witcha, buddy. I reckon though that you do me disservice by branding me a tad intolerant, shortsighted, subjective. I am confident to be neither of those, though not the perfect man. Neither is Rasna, by gawd!! Very Happy

Cannot be any good in Threat-Analysis , as I am informed I am, if I was subjective, intolerant and short-sighted. Peace, brother. Shocked

Batian Wed May 23 2012, 14:53

Can we simply explain Col. Oguna's silence and speculative media reports as alshabaab simply ceasing to engage in combat. It looks like there are no combat related events simply to report. I believe the simple explanation to little info with regards to OLN is the war-zone is transforming to re-align itself into another phase.

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