REGIONAL DISCUSSIONS:

Spartan wrote:I am intrigued, as usual, by Kenya's diplomatic balancing act. While other nations are reducing Iranian oil imports, it looks like we will be burning Iranian gasoline for years to come. What I am yet to figure out - Do the Iranians appreciate the friend in need that Kenya is at this time when other nations are shunning them? It's difficult to see how that is so when Iran is shipping explosives to Kenya with an unknown agenda.

The Iranians must have offered a hell of a deal for Kenya to put other considerations, like Sammy's support, aside. Kenya's stubbornly independent diplomatic stance is to be admired nonetheless.

Well, it looks like this won't happen afterall:-

http://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFL6E8I46ST20120704?sp=true

Other developments:-

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/world/2012-07/04/c_131695397.htm

The two men that brought explosives into Kenya belong to the Quds Force, a secretive unit within the Revolutionary Guards of Iran. More than any other entity, this group has exported more explosives violence worldwide and is the main reason the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, Lebanon, and more recently Syria, are not yet over. It is headed by Brig. Gen. Qasem Soleimani and due to Iran's siege mentality, it takes precedence over the ministry of foreign affairs.

The foreign affairs ministry reports to the elected president while members of the Revolutionary Guard and the Quds Force report to the Ayatollah. It goes without saying that the ministry of foreign affairs is stacked full by members of the RF guard and the more dangerous Quds Force. If you have ever shaken hands with an Iranian diplomat chances are that you've met a Quds Force member. And they leave no illusions as to who is in charge. When in January this year Gen. David Petreus seemed to be talking to the wrong Iranians, Gen. Qasem Soleimani volunteered the following information in a letter to him;

“General Petraeus, you should
know that Qassem Suleimani controls the
policy for Iran with respect to Iraq, Lebanon, Gaza,
and Afghanistan. And indeed, the ambassador in Baghdad is a Quds Force member.
The individual who’s going to replace him is a Quds Force member,”



Read for yourself about this outfit here. and here. A more informative profile that combines Gen. Qasem Soleimani's rise with the history of the Revolutionary Guards can be found here.

Now to the modus operandi of this outfit and what they possibly wanted to do with the explosives. Of course all of us have heard of the motor cycle-riding sticky bombs (Thailand, Azerbaijan, India, and Georgia) and the bombs in radios (Thailand). What we should be more concerned about is their signature tactic- controlling militant groups by providing explosives. The Taliban and Iraqi militants have neither explosives factories or international connections to buy the chemical ingredients. The Quds Force supply explosives to the Shiites (Iranians are also Shiite) with one hand and with the other hand supply the Sunni.

The captured explosives were going to end up being used either by Al Qaeda or Al Shabaab, or both - the Quds Force likes it when it has options.

How would Iran benefit, someone may ask?

[1]. It's good tactics to keep your enemy running around in circles. By keeping the west busy in Afghanistan, Iraq, Somalia their hands will be full and as long as Iran can keep it going, it will not be a target, militarily at least. Sun Tzu would applaud these guys.

[2]. More importantly, Iran is working on the A-Bomb, regardless of their denials. By formenting trouble elsewhere, they buy time til the test they have enough materials and expertise for a weapon. In this they have almost succeeded. experts say within 12 months to 18 months they will have enough enriched UR for one bomb.

[3]. Iran wants to destroy the Great Satan and replace it with, well, the Ayatollah's rule. In Gen. Qasshemi's words "Tehran is capable of influencing the advent of Islamist governments in order to fight arrogant powers".

So, have I ever met a Revolutionary Guard member? You bet.

Failed state? Do you guys worry about this? It is a creation of the west. I wonder what parameters they use to arrive at their conclusions.

http://www.newvision.co.ug/news/632641-uganda-not-a-failed-state.html

Is there a desert anywhere in Uganda? Just wondering. Reason for the highest food production in the region?

http://www.newvision.co.ug/news/632663-ugandans-best-fed-in-east-africa-report.html

Olekoima wrote:Is there a desert anywhere in Uganda? Just wondering. Reason for the highest food production in the region?

http://www.newvision.co.ug/news/632663-ugandans-best-fed-in-east-africa-report.html

Is it just me or the questions just aren't clear? Failed to put the questions in context, especially the one about the desert.

Spartan wrote:

Olekoima wrote:Is there a desert anywhere in Uganda? Just wondering. Reason for the highest food production in the region?

http://www.newvision.co.ug/news/632663-ugandans-best-fed-in-east-africa-report.html

Is it just me or the questions just aren't clear? Failed to put the questions in context, especially the one about the desert.

It might not have been a true question as such. What i meant is that Uganda is the bread basket of East Africa because most of her land is arable with few or no deserts/Arid conditions. And by the way are there any real desets in Uganda?

Olekoima wrote:It might not have been a true question as such. What i meant is that Uganda is the bread basket of East Africa because most of her land is arable with few or no deserts/Arid conditions. And by the way are there any real desets in Uganda?

Roger that. There are no deserts in Uganda for sure, or anywhere else in East Africa for that matter. There is a lot of potential for agriculture in E.A

Kenya has always had a funny way of getting things done. Doesn't anyone find it strange that an hour after Kenya announces it has cancelled the oil deal with Iran the U.S lifts its travel advisory on Mombasa? When the U.S advisoried Msa, PS Patrick Nyoike was visibly angry https://youtu.be/D6w06mSPZgw . The tourist high season is just babout to start, so kenya goes ahead n announces an oil deal with iran. basically tells america, no tourist we go for cheaper oil. americans react, start talking agree to lift the advisory an kenya cancells the deal. everybody is happy!

Except perhaps Chalbi desert. Most of Northern Kenya is not quite the mecca for flora and fauna either - it is arid. Irrigation is difficult because of the scarcity of rivers in the region. If you look at a map of Uganda on the other hand, water is literally competing for space with land.

Spartan wrote:

Olekoima wrote:It might not have been a true question as such. What i meant is that Uganda is the bread basket of East Africa because most of her land is arable with few or no deserts/Arid conditions. And by the way are there any real desets in Uganda?

Roger that. There are no deserts in Uganda for sure, or anywhere else in East Africa for that matter. There is a lot of potential for agriculture in E.A

Enough of those confrontations/ KDF page hot as fire. Vitruvian and Analyst, I hope you are not keen on showing who is more pard than the other. Though I admit such ideological confrontations assists to create a level of understanding between forummers. Gentlemen, what is your take on this overhyped successful valuation of a combined 10 billion barrels from across The Kenyan and Ethio oil blocks. Even before appraisal and commercial evaluations begins at the blocs a cool 5billion Ksh is realized just from licenses.

Nigeria has petroleum but it is a relatively poor country with poverty raking over almost half of the national population. Can we assume that an oil mecca like Saudi Arabia will carefully curve out itself on an East African landscape once the necessary infrustructure is put in place, or does it mean more restrictive steering from local oil companies on who and where to sell the commodity. Even UG oil, what is the future of oil as authorities try to formulate a policy or direction on governance of this resource?

Kepler-Eular, thanks for those sumptuous nuggets

Efrommers wrote:Enough of those confrontations/ KDF page hot as fire. Vitruvian and Analyst, I hope you are not keen on showing who is more pard than the other. Though I admit such ideological confrontations assists to create a level of understanding between forummers. Gentlemen, what is your take on this overhyped successful valuation of a combined 10 billion barrels from across The Kenyan and Ethio oil blocks. Even before appraisal and commercial evaluations begins at the blocs a cool 5billion Ksh is realized just from licenses.

Even UG oil, what is the future of oil as authorities try to formulate a policy or direction on governance of this resource?

I have written before that the future of East Africa is very bright, and oil will make only a part of that. East Africa is the one region where you can get all the Big Five (Elephants, Lions, Buffalo, Rhino, Giraffes). Add to that Mountain Gorillas, baboons, chimps, the wild-beasts and their annual migration and no place can rival here in attracting tourism dollars.

Up until now, we have depended on agriculture, the service industries and some limited exports and look where it's got us! In Uganda's case, revenue from oil is primarily intended for big infrastructural projects, at least that is the plan now - highways, dams, bridges, hospitals etc.

But where do you get the figure of 10 billion barrels for both Kenya and Ethiopia? There could be much more, or less. One thing you have to take with a pinch of salt are the announcements by oil companies - they are always carefully worded to improve the outlook of their shares, take the host population over the moon, and in the process blindfold them into signing unfavorable agreements. We know this. Venezuela saw and acted. When the oil is being exploited with a minimum of noise, know that the ruling elite are in bed with the oil companies (Equatorial Guinea, Angola?).

Around 2004 when Tullow begun exploring in Uganda and Ghana, their stock was valued at around $6bn, it is now at $22bn! Quite a leap for a company whose oil production has increased by just 20,000 bopd from 70,000 in 2005 to 90,000 bopd currently. Kenya will soon reach where we are after you know your net worth in barrels of oil and begin to scrutinise the agreements. I can bet my mama on the possibility that you will feel screwed.

The noises I am hearing from Kenya remind me of Ug in 2006 - 2008. And what I am saying is that mkuwe macho, tafadhali!

But being an oil producer (and refining the oil within your borders) is better than having no oil, even if the oil companies screw you back and forth

Some two significant developments have happened today;
1. Fulani muslims have killed a Nigerian senator
2. Congolese rebels have taken Rutshuru, just after taking Bunagana on the border with Uganda.

Watch this space
Congolese rebels have taken Rutshuru

Spartan wrote:

Efrommers wrote:Enough of those confrontations/ KDF page hot as fire. Vitruvian and Analyst, I hope you are not keen on showing who is more pard than the other. Though I admit such ideological confrontations assists to create a level of understanding between forummers. Gentlemen, what is your take on this overhyped successful valuation of a combined 10 billion barrels from across The Kenyan and Ethio oil blocks. Even before appraisal and commercial evaluations begins at the blocs a cool 5billion Ksh is realized just from licenses.

Even UG oil, what is the future of oil as authorities try to formulate a policy or direction on governance of this resource?

I have written before that the future of East Africa is very bright, and oil will make only a part of that. East Africa is the one region where you can get all the Big Five (Elephants, Lions, Buffalo, Rhino, Giraffes). Add to that Mountain Gorillas, baboons, chimps, the wild-beasts and their annual migration and no place can rival here in attracting tourism dollars.

Up until now, we have depended on agriculture, the service industries and some limited exports and look where it's got us! In Uganda's case, revenue from oil is primarily intended for big infrastructural projects, at least that is the plan now - highways, dams, bridges, hospitals etc.

But where do you get the figure of 10 billion barrels for both Kenya and Ethiopia? There could be much more, or less. One thing you have to take with a pinch of salt are the announcements by oil companies - they are always carefully worded to improve the outlook of their shares, take the host population over the moon, and in the process blindfold them into signing unfavorable agreements. We know this. Venezuela saw and acted. When the oil is being exploited with a minimum of noise, know that the ruling elite are in bed with the oil companies (Equatorial Guinea, Angola?).

Around 2004 when Tullow begun exploring in Uganda and Ghana, their stock was valued at around $6bn, it is now at $22bn! Quite a leap for a company whose oil production has increased by just 20,000 bopd from 70,000 in 2005 to 90,000 bopd currently. Kenya will soon reach where we are after you know your net worth in barrels of oil and begin to scrutinise the agreements. I can bet my mama on the possibility that you will feel screwed.

The noises I am hearing from Kenya remind me of Ug in 2006 - 2008. And what I am saying is that mkuwe macho, tafadhali!

But being an oil producer (and refining the oil within your borders) is better than having no oil, even if the oil companies screw you back and forth

@Spartan, Thanks for the eye-opener. But it is on record Tullow. INC is highly vanguarded by geologists and geophysicists for undertaking cutting-edge breakthroughs in frontier basins where other companies have failed before. But for kenya, if valuations of 100000bopd is realized on the first process of drilling what does this mean? Angola which has completed the processes of infrastructural and institutional arrangements, current bopd stands at 80000. Ug's incremental evaluations since 2004 seem quite suspect to me. I would have expected Ug to have reached a milestone since 2004 in terms of setting up the required processing plants for crude oil by now.

No doubt with time costs will increase as explorations continue and that is why Tullow in UG did not want to sour potential investors after running other analogies (Stock market evaluation, exploration and appraisal activities, and Global oil prices etc). Now correct me if I am wrong, after Tullow .INC's heavy tax bill amounting to $472 million dollars made it sell two-thirds of money raised to Total and China National Offshore Oil Corp, or CNOOC, for $2.9 billion probably to leverage ever increasing costs. For the Kenyan scenario, all we are pray for is that institutional arrangements will be made to address the needs for this commodity.

Efrommers wrote:@Spartan, Thanks for the eye-opener. But it is on record Tullow. INC is highly vanguarded by geologists and geophysicists for undertaking cutting-edge breakthroughs in frontier basins where other companies have failed before. But for kenya, if valuations of 100000bopd is realized on the first process of drilling what does this mean? Angola which has completed the processes of infrastructural and institutional arrangements, current bopd stands at 80000. Ug's incremental evaluations since 2004 seem quite suspect to me. I would have expected Ug to have reached a milestone since 2004 in terms of setting up the required processing plants for crude oil by now.

No doubt with time costs will increase as explorations continue and that is why Tullow in UG did not want to sour potential investors after running other analogies (Stock market evaluation, exploration and appraisal activities, and Global oil prices etc). Now correct me if I am wrong, after Tullow .INC's heavy tax bill amounting to $472 million dollars made it sell two-thirds of money raised to Total and China National Offshore Oil Corp, or CNOOC, for $2.9 billion probably to leverage ever increasing costs. For the Kenyan scenario, all we are pray for is that institutional arrangements will be made to address the needs for this commodity.

Your post only confirms what I stated earlier, people tend, in the beginning, to get all excited without facts. How can you say Angola's bopd is 80,000? Angola occasionally overtakes Nigeria as Africa's biggest producer! Check here to see how many they've produced since they started.

So you know what made Tullow Oil sell its two thirds? It was not to raise funds or even to bring in companies with expertise in bringing the oil to the surface, NO? But the 'heavy' tax. Good for you man

Of what use is being a US ally? You get hammered by terrorists on their behalf and then your friend deserts you and rubs salt into a wound by hurting you economically:-

http://www.capitalfm.co.ke/news/2012/07/us-embassy-issues-fresh-kenya-advisory/

Armed soldiers running away from the town they are supposed to protect?

Spartan wrote:Some two significant developments have happened today;
1. Fulani muslims have killed a Nigerian senator
2. Congolese rebels have taken Rutshuru, just after taking Bunagana on the border with Uganda.

Watch this space
Congolese rebels have taken Rutshuru

Sorry people, do not think I'm dumb, but I'm wondering why the Congolese do not seem to have any will to stand up for their country. What is ailing this DRC?

What is going on in Eastern Congo (DRC )? These are unnecessary distractions. Refugees will stretch resources. Something needs to be done urgently. It is surprising that DRC for all her riches does not have an army capable enough to the extend that they can be harrased by rebels and tiny Rwanda.

http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/uganda-seeks-influx-16000-refugees-16751968

Rwanda?

http://thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2012/7/11/worldupdates/2012-07-10T175849Z_2_BRE8690XN_RTROPTT_0_UK-CONGO-DEMOCRATIC-REBELS&sec=Worldupdates

mogen wrote:

Tanzania to become 8th largest Uranium Producer
Dar es Salaam — The first part of the uranium production will start in the second quarter of 2014 as the producer said all production in the first phase will be for the exportation rather than for local use.

Sources from Mantra Tanzania Limited said Tanzanian have nothing to worry as the first batch of the whole production of the uranium mining under Mkuju River Project (MRP) will be for the foreign market first.

"The MPR is shaping up as a truly world-class project and has the potential, in its first phase of its development, to position Tanzania as the third largest producer of Uranium in Africa," the source said.....more of the story is at:
http://allafrica.com/stories/201207091557.html

Methinks this is nothing to celebrate about. It just spells trouble to our region.

Already the vultures are circling for a killing. Mantra Tanzania Ltd is a whole-owned subsidiary of an Australian company, Mantra Resources Ltd. As soon as they announced their kill in Tanzania Russian nuclear holding company Rosatom made a $1.6billion bid on Mantra Resources Ltd and by the look of things the Russians may take it all.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/russian-company-offers-16bn-for-mantra-resources/story-e6frg8zx-1225971738042

Thing is, they all want the resource minus the degradation they will leave after 12-15 yrs when the Uranium will be finished. And there is more trouble. The radioactive waste from the buyer-countries will have to be accepted and stored by Tanzania. Some of those waste products have a half life of 2000yrs!!!!!!!

Its always the same expected results Company A comes in the area conducts never ending evaluations and estimates, calculating costs of production and transportation. End results might be in the manner of the current Oil juggernaut in EA.

I am going to restrict my post to tanks today. I've not seen any Kenyan Vickers in Somalia. @ ole Nkarei? Are they there or were they considered surplus to requirements?

In the UK, a former serviceman stirred up a storm by saying that the army has only 200 tanks meaning that it has more generals than tanks, Challenger tanks, that is. MoD swiftly called him out as way off the mark. They gave the not-so-reassuring figure of 337 tanks, 100 of which are operational while the rest are kept in a 'state of readiness'. The Brits must really have a lot of faith in their tanks to maintain an inventory of just 337!

Meanwhile in Syria, a possible game changer. The rebels have of late upped their tank-killing abilities, as the pictures below show;

First, three tanks come within range and one apparently runs over what appears like an anti-tank mine.


Then the tank on the left is hit by what should be an anti-tank missile.


When the first hit doesn't get the job done, a second one is launched. Man, it's bad when your mother can't recognise her son!

Nice photos @ Spartan. I also wonder what happened to the Vickers tanks. They crossed over, but appear not to have been useful for the job at hand. I think they prefer the wheeled Panhards to the tanks. Perhaps Ole Nkarei can shed some light on the matter.

Old, but still relevant. Read on:-

http://theafricareport.com/index.php/news-analysis/the-dangers-of-carving-up-somalia-50180834.html

A year ago I was in Juba as one of the people who midwifed South Sudan. They turned one year old and put on a show. The following pics were sourced from variuos places

Spartan wrote:I am going to restrict my post to tanks today. I've not seen any Kenyan Vickers in Somalia. @ ole Nkarei? Are they there or were they considered surplus to requirements?

Ya this Old guy has been missing the action…..


remind me to talk about it after Kismayo falls. Its part of the overall strategy.

Risasi wrote:

Spartan wrote:I am going to restrict my post to tanks today. I've not seen any Kenyan Vickers in Somalia. @ ole Nkarei? Are they there or were they considered surplus to requirements?

Ya this Old guy has been missing the action…..


remind me to talk about it after Kismayo falls. Its part of the overall strategy.

My lips are nailed tight from end to end on details of KDF Assets in-Theatre!
That ''Old Guy'' does look handsome, though, eh?

ole Nkarei wrote:

Risasi wrote:

Spartan wrote:I am going to restrict my post to tanks today. I've not seen any Kenyan Vickers in Somalia. @ ole Nkarei? Are they there or were they considered surplus to requirements?

Ya this Old guy has been missing the action…..


remind me to talk about it after Kismayo falls. Its part of the overall strategy.

My lips are nailed tight from end to end on details of KDF Assets in-Theatre!
That ''Old Guy'' does look handsome, though, eh?

So is it true that the 78th Tank Battalion is getting upgraded??

Risasi wrote:

Spartan wrote:I am going to restrict my post to tanks today. I've not seen any Kenyan Vickers in Somalia. @ ole Nkarei? Are they there or were they considered surplus to requirements?

Ya this Old guy has been missing the action…..


remind me to talk about it after Kismayo falls. Its part of the overall strategy.

Absolutely gorgeous, about time they saw some action.

@spartan and ON yes she is a beauty.
@cylon saba nane got upgraded based on the picture background (nakuru) she from 81st.