Kenya Defence Forces (KDF)

so who will blink first?
i think if OBAMA BEATS the politically acrobatic MEAT ROMINGNY next Tuesday he will talk sense back into museveni

http://www.monitor.co.ug/News/National/Uganda+pulling+out+of+Somalia++says+Amama/-/688334/1609936/-/d778ygz/-/index.html

Aggressor 1, Spartan, Bird crane fill us on the situation. What the status?
@C,sniper ya looks like a chess game .M7 seem to have a better stake and upper hand.

Its akin to your sons is undergoing a traditional circumcision and you start abusing and insulting the village surgeon because you have just realized the surgeon has a lousy personal life style. Now that small guy “Som” got to bleed and in pain a little bit longer until the new doctor comes in, just because of some moral police woke up to tidy the room. It’s saddening situation but what can we do.

We damn well know AMISOM command expired on 31st
So can we first identify the solution to that impasse?
UPDF GoU threat is baseless as far as the UNSC does not commission extension of AMISOM command.

Analyst wrote:We damn well know AMISOM command expired on 31st
So can we first identify the solution to that impasse?
UPDF GoU threat is baseless as far as the UNSC does not commission extension of AMISOM command.

Ok analyst expiring date is 31st lakini we all know how the theater looks like so the 31 date is not visible.

I said a week ago that M7 was not fooling or posturing with this matter. Even posted simulations we have been ordered by political oversight to develop if and when withdrawal is effected. But fellas here seemed fixated with the morbid detail of "Body Count" and other brikbrak. After a week of shuttling back and forth across and beyond, I tell you this is grave stuff.

Coupla facts.

1. The sense of outrage and anger within the UPDF Brass is "cut-with-a-bayonet" thick and unconcealed. It is representative at every level of their Officer Corps and not just those we have been in these meetings with this week. It has generated this disengagement policy.

2. Notice our Ole Man has not commented and neither has official IGAD nor EAC nor AU and nor AMISOM despite that there is nothing else in Africa as momentous as a breakup of AMISOM. Not even the UNSC has rejoinder. Make no mistake about it - M7 is not expressing the indignation of Uganda alone and neither is this move without great consultations and very tacit though silent agreement of his Colleagues in IGAD and EAC. If Kenya was not aboard this Bus our shuttling would have had a civil service cum political composition - it hadn't..

3. If UGABAG pulls out, AMISOM dies sudden death and with it all prospects of a federated Zoomaliya. KDF will revert to our original Strategic Objective of a Kenya-integrated Jubbaland - all Gedo, Middle and Lower Jubba. Ethiopia will take Bakool, Bay, lower and middle Shabelle and Hiiraan. Puntland will go the Saomaliland way. And sheit will continue dogging this region for an indefinite period. Africa must close Ranks with M7 and retain AMISOM in its present composition.

4. The UNSC is naked and they know it. The manipulations by Western Political and Commercial players of the UNSC-Africa Policy has been exposed. They will seek to extricate themselves from this cesspool with whatever dignity African will allow them - but Africa needs to get behind M7 for this to happen. Then we can close Zoomaliya Theater in a manner that benefits Africa and move on to those other outstanding "trouble spots" with our African Solutions.

@Balozi......after the expiry of AMISOM services who foots the bill of the boots?
That's Museveni question to UNSC.
Besides most UNSC analysts may have audited Museveni's wars and found out he has never brought peace anywhere

Not Congo, not Somalia, not South Sudan........he has been just bleeding them money.
While it's good he has set pace on regional peace efforts through military operations, it's the success and motive/objective that is the truly profound

Analyst wrote:We damn well know AMISOM command expired on 31st
So can we first identify the solution to that impasse?
UPDF GoU threat is baseless as far as the UNSC does not commission extension of AMISOM command.

Temporary extentiion of the present AMISOM mandate was granted this early this week.

African Union has amended this Mandate to include the KDF-Navy and "Stabilization" component which requires greater Civilian and Administrative Assets to begin setting up governance structures and training Zoomaliya personnel - this require debate at the UNSC and hence the stop-gap temporary extension of present mandate.

There in no alternative to AMISOM. None at all. It collapses, Zoomaliya dies finally. And the first world moves on untroubled. Discussion about Mali are "marking-time" at the intention-phase now five months!

Analyst wrote:@Balozi......after the expiry of AMISOM services who foots the bill of the boots?
That's Museveni question to UNSC.
Besides most UNSC analysts may have audited Museveni's wars and found out he has never brought peace anywhere

Not Congo, not Somalia, not South Sudan........he has been just bleeding them money.
While it's good he has set pace on regional peace efforts through military operations, it's the success and motive/objective that is the truly profound

Hahah….. analyst you gone ruffle up so feathers man….
@ON…
1.so KDF is getting ready for it , mission wish?
2.what really happens after budget end date.

Analyst wrote:@Balozi......after the expiry of AMISOM services who foots the bill of the boots?
That's Museveni question to UNSC.
Besides most UNSC analysts may have audited Museveni's wars and found out he has never brought peace anywhere

Not Congo, not Somalia, not South Sudan........he has been just bleeding them money.
While it's good he has set pace on regional peace efforts through military operations, it's the success and motive/objective that is the truly profound

you proved my doubt, yes you are nothing more than your profile name describes you a big "ANAL LIST".

@Balozi - not sure I understand your query.

We will not play any active role in an AU Mission to Mali beyod MILOS and behind-the-desk mambo. Moreover Mali must be driven from within the region it naturally and logically follows.

If you meant Jubbaland and AMISOM budgets - we can complete Jubbalabd outside the AMISOM ambit. UNSC will without doubt renew the AMISOM mandate for another year although the AMISOM cannot survive an UGABAG withdrawal.

@Crane - easy, mate. Stand down buddy.

ole Nkarei wrote:@Balozi - not sure I understand your query.

We will not play any active role in an AU Mission to Mali beyod MILOS and behind-the-desk mambo. Moreover Mali must be driven from within the region it naturally and logically follows.

If you meant Jubbaland and AMISOM budgets - we can complete Jubbalabd outside the AMISOM ambit. UNSC will without doubt renew the AMISOM mandate for another year although the AMISOM cannot survive an UGABAG withdrawal.

@Crane - easy, mate. Stand down buddy.

the second paraghraph answered me ok. i also was asking if KDF is ready or planning to fill in that vacuum if the inimaginable happens and UDPF pull out?

countersniper wrote:so who will blink first?
i think if OBAMA BEATS the politically acrobatic MEAT ROMINGNY next Tuesday he will talk sense back into museveni

http://www.monitor.co.ug/News/National/Uganda+pulling+out+of+Somalia++says+Amama/-/688334/1609936/-/d778ygz/-/index.html

It depends. If support for M23 is more lucrative than AMISOM, then nobody blinks. The UN is not going to withdraw a report because Uganda asks it to. Let alone a report it has not officially released. When you factor in the expiry date for AMISOM mandate, it makes the threat seem less principled.

@Ole Nkarei

Let the Crane vent his frustrations with me...Spartan got used to it...Crane will get used too. It is very good therapy psychologically.

About the AMISOM issue, it is good that the mandate has been extended. But am not sure if UPDF pull out completely eats away AMISOM and any other AU sponsored and factored peace mission in Africa.

Depending on a number of facts which you may have on your desk including the marriage between the Australians, British, and Americans with Museveni's army UPDF, there is a possibility Museveni is not actually singing the IGAD-AU song rather the Western way.

Efforts to stop progress in Somalia are not news to you since it even affected your boys squarely.
The proxy war maybe taking shape owing to the fact that Washington has some people who work for the president of USA involved in Congo Gold... and our own old man is very angry ...that 'wisdom' like Mworia sold these guys to Kabila and they talked about the chain yanked by the likes of Museveni.

The actual picture looks like the GOLD CHAIN WAS YANKED BUT THE CHAIN WAS VERY LONG
Museveni's zeal for military largese is his greatest weakness though suffice to say, the GOLD CHAIN is tied to him on the hip.

By making threats and opting such drastic measures only calls for more drastic measures by worried parties to keep close tabs on what Museveni is upto.
The outcome will be not very executive for Kampala since people like Besigye will be welcomed by Washington ...arms wide open.....besides Museveni's flip-side will be dice tossed and game....Museveni is digging his own grave so quickly that his friends in high places are feeling exuberant and triumphant about it!

It was a long shot.....!! One says....
Besides...who said Washington wanted a peaceful Somalia?
A stable, economically healthy Somalia only further isolates US geopolitical muscle in the region to you!

@Fabrizio.....that's exactly what it is....quite on spot. More eyes are on Museveni....which begs the question...who advises him...?

Balozi wrote:

ole Nkarei wrote:@Balozi - not sure I understand your query.

We will not play any active role in an AU Mission to Mali beyod MILOS and behind-the-desk mambo. Moreover Mali must be driven from within the region it naturally and logically follows.

If you meant Jubbaland and AMISOM budgets - we can complete Jubbalabd outside the AMISOM ambit. UNSC will without doubt renew the AMISOM mandate for another year although the AMISOM cannot survive an UGABAG withdrawal.

@Crane - easy, mate. Stand down buddy.

the second paraghraph answered me ok. i also was asking if KDF is ready or planning to fill in that vacuum if the inimaginable happens and UDPF pull out?

@Balozi - eeeish man! Just read my two earlier posts of today. And then we cam engage.

@Fabrizo - that point of view is idealistic such as drives civil society debates. And the Mandate was temporarily extended this week to allow discussions at the UNSC for AU-driven alterations of the Mandate. It will be renewed for another year, no fear, the format is the detail yet to be agreed. There is no alternative to AMISOM - and no AMISOM without UGABAG .

The M23 report was "leaked" with the express approval of some players on the UNSC as a test-balloon tobjudge repercussions of it on vital initiatives the UN is running In Africa. Happens all the time.

Itthas not been adopted by the UNSC nor even debated. It will not be adopted - doubtful it will even be debated. Perfect disengagement card for the UNSC from the M7 gauntlet aggressively thrown at the UNSC.

ole Nkarei wrote:The M23 report was "leaked" with the express approval of some players on the UNSC as a test-balloon tobjudge repercussions of it on vital initiatives the UN is running In Africa. Happens all the time.

Itthas not been adopted by the UNSC nor even debated. It will not be adopted - doubtful it will even be debated. Perfect disengagement card for the UNSC from the M7 gauntlet aggressively thrown at the UNSC.

Agreed. in this battle with the reckless UNSC agents M7 is presently winning. If things continue on the same trajectory the report may never go as far as being debated and M7 will have the last laugh. Otherwise, ni kubaya and Ke must quietly but aggressively pursue contingency measures. Here is my reason: It is conceivable that a GoU or two may be complicit and the report authors might have hard evidence of such mischief. If, indeed, that eventuates then things will become elephant because M7 is very unlikely to eat humble pie vis a vis this matter. in the meantime, the alkebabs' high command must be praying, without ceasing, for the worst case scenario.

[quote="countersniper"]so who will blink first?
i think if OBAMA BEATS the politically acrobatic MEAT ROMINGNY next Tuesday he will talk sense back into museveni

What has been Obama's positive impact on Africans? Has he bested George Bush? Has he outmatched Bill Clinton in Africa? Do Africans have a stake in his reelection? Have we leveraged anything at all from this Kenya President of the USA? Has Africa really felt his presence? Beyond the feel-good nostalgia of a Black man in the White House?

ON

Aiseeee, are these GSU chaps patrolling Chai Town?

Martin Plaut wrote:The United States did all it could to dissuade Kenya from attempting to establish a buffer state inside Somalia, to halt al Shabaab. In a series of meetings detailed in cables in the Wikileaks archive, Senior American diplomats told the Kenyans they could not support the project, which had luke-warm support from Uganda and Ethiopia. At the end of this summary are all the Wikileaks cables....

http://martinplaut.wordpress.com/2011/11/19/how-the-usa-warned-kenya-against-going-into-somalia/[img][/img]

Chair Town is an active military hot zone. The only Police are hard-faced MPs with hard hats and full body armor. There is no legal mandate for inserting Civilian Police elements in Chai Town. Yet!

Those are GSU strolling along a Mombasa street "force-projecting" complete with a coterie of idling civilians in their midst and charge-batons for crowd control.! The architecture is neocolonial coastal too.

ole Nkarei wrote: Then we can close Zoomaliya Theater in a manner that benefits Africa and move on to those other outstanding "trouble spots" with our African Solutions.

Well said ON but the only voice we are hearing are from Ug why the mute from AU? What African solutions when the Largesse is coming from the west? I suggest we move this issue to Ug forum where it belongs

[quote="ole Nkarei"]

countersniper wrote:so who will blink first?
i think if OBAMA BEATS the politically acrobatic MEAT ROMINGNY next Tuesday he will talk sense back into museveni

What has been Obama's positive impact on Africans? Has he bested George Bush? Has he outmatched Bill Clinton in Africa? Do Africans have a stake in his reelection? Have we leveraged anything at all from this Kenya President of the USA? Has Africa really felt his presence? Beyond the feel-good nostalgia of a Black man in the White House?

As one of those Americans that voted for Obama and intend to vote for him again on Tuesday let me be the first to tell you he is the president of the United States of America and not Kenya or Africa. The idea that he owes Africans something or should have presented Africans some policies to sort out the mess on the mother continent is silly to say the least.

What he has done in "Merica" in the face of republican obstructionism is what we judge him by. Our economy is rebounding with 170K jobs created last month alone and it's a slow but steady path. Remember, Clinton was not facing a recession and benifited greatly from the tech boom of the 90s. What is of importance right now is saving jobs IN Ohio, Pennsylvania-here.

The issue of race should not be taken lightly and I can assure you the American voter(at least 49% -HA) does not have that dangerous fixation on race so knock that off. I do not agree with 100% of his foreign policy but he is not the "muscle man in chief" the republicans seek. On Tuesday, at least 281 electoral votes for Obama and we can move FOWARD.

[quote="mekatilili"]

ole Nkarei wrote:

countersniper wrote:so who will blink first?
i think if OBAMA BEATS the politically acrobatic MEAT ROMINGNY next Tuesday he will talk sense back into museveni

What has been Obama's positive impact on Africans? Has he bested George Bush? Has he outmatched Bill Clinton in Africa? Do Africans have a stake in his reelection? Have we leveraged anything at all from this Kenya President of the USA? Has Africa really felt his presence? Beyond the feel-good nostalgia of a Black man in the White House?

As one of those Americans that voted for Obama and intend to vote for him again on Tuesday let me be the first to tell you he is the president of the United States of America and not Kenya or Africa. The idea that he owes Africans something or should have presented Africans some policies to sort out the mess on the mother continent is silly to say the least.

What he has done in "Merica" in the face of republican obstructionism is what we judge him by. Our economy is rebounding with 170K jobs created last month alone and it's a slow but steady path. Remember, Clinton was not facing a recession and benifited greatly from the tech boom of the 90s. What is of importance right now is saving jobs IN Ohio, Pennsylvania-here.

The issue of race should not be taken lightly and I can assure you the American voter(at least 49% -HA) does not have that dangerous fixation on race so knock that off. I do not agree with 100% of his foreign policy but he is not the "muscle man in chief" the republicans seek. On Tuesday, at least 281 electoral votes for Obama and we can move FOWARD.

Mekatilili,

I suspect there are sections of the Kenyan elite who (if they had the wherewithal) could gladly join the GOP campaign and best Trump in supplying "October surprises". Be that as it may, I think this is a strictly American thing and whichever way Americans decide, they will be making a collective statement to the world, just like Kenyans will, early next year. How the world reacts to such a statement then affects relationships all around.

Moozalendo.

KaBoom!!! wrote:

Just saw this on yahoo and remembered id seen this discussion here.
http://news.yahoo.com/kenyan-official-2-700-ugandans-dead-somalia-140340249.html

about 500 Ethiopians Died in the battle of Baidoa in 2006 ALONE.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Baidoa
Ethiopia lost several thousands overall.

Thus, the figure of 2700 Ugandan dead is very much sensible and feasable.

While we respect the dead, this is however a war whose success is counted in body count as there is no territory to be gained.

This is not to say that Uganda failed, BUT valuable lessons have been learnt by all participants in the theate especialy urban warfare.

Uzi wrote:

ole Nkarei wrote: Then we can close Zoomaliya Theater in a manner that benefits Africa and move on to those other outstanding "trouble spots" with our African Solutions.

Well said ON but the only voice we are hearing are from Ug why the mute from AU? What African solutions when the Largesse is coming from the west? I suggest we move this issue to Ug forum where it belongs

good observations lets chat there

bwanapesa wrote:

KaBoom!!! wrote:

Just saw this on yahoo and remembered id seen this discussion here.
http://news.yahoo.com/kenyan-official-2-700-ugandans-dead-somalia-140340249.html

about 500 Ethiopians Died in the battle of Baidoa in 2006 ALONE.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Baidoa
Ethiopia lost several thousands overall.

Thus, the figure of 2700 Ugandan dead is very much sensible and feasable.

While we respect the dead, this is however a war whose success is counted in body count as there is no territory to be gained.

This is not to say that Uganda failed, BUT valuable lessons have been learnt by all participants in the theate especialy urban warfare.

With all respect why this morbid fascination with KIA. Is ur argument based on probability or u have a better matrix? Would it therefore be inorder to say KDF has lost 500 in the one year on theatre? No way! Knock it off man you are late in contributing to this issue newbie.

Uzi wrote:

ole Nkarei wrote: Then we can close Zoomaliya Theater in a manner that benefits Africa and move on to those other outstanding "trouble spots" with our African Solutions.

Well said ON but the only voice we are hearing are from Ug why the mute from AU? What African solutions when the Largesse is coming from the west? I suggest we move this issue to Ug forum where it belongs

Latest is that UN has denied the report. May be that settles it now.

aggressor one wrote:

Uzi wrote:

ole Nkarei wrote: Then we can close Zoomaliya Theater in a manner that benefits Africa and move on to those other outstanding "trouble spots" with our African Solutions.

Well said ON but the only voice we are hearing are from Ug why the mute from AU? What African solutions when the Largesse is coming from the west? I suggest we move this issue to Ug forum where it belongs

Latest is that UN has denied the report. May be that settles it now.

UNSC has blinked first and now M7 has the last laugh. But it's good for our region. In fact, the Somalia PM had also voiced concerns that his country was placed in danger from the kebabs by UGABAG's withdrawal threat.

mogen,

I would not go as far as saying they blinked. I am not sure how familiar the monitor's reporters are with the workings of an international body like the UN. The report has neither been adopted nor rejected. Mr. Singh, the Indian representative, states the obvious in diplo-speak. When he says the views expressed by the experts “do not necessarily reflect those of the United Nations.” he leaves open the possibility that they may eventually reflect those of the UN.

Here is the report http://www.monitor.co.ug/News/National/UN+distances+self+from+Congo+report/-/688334/1610644/-/lisbqlz/-/index.html. Needless to say, the headline UN distances self from Congo report is misleading.

@blog pardon me for the late rejoinder on this DAMN! UN report,I would like to ask Is UPDF rendevous with the UN in Somalia coming to a halt due to a deal gone sour or is it the announcement of suffered AU mission casualties by asst minister Onyonka that is creating unease within the UPDF contingent? It is not yet understood what the complaints from various UPDF contingents are all about. Either way, UGabag should have seen this coming long time ago and prepared an exit strategy. Nways,great lessons for kenyanese to learn.