REGIONAL DISCUSSIONS:

ole Nkarei wrote:Hebu jisomee mwenyewe this comical story and tell me what the hell it is all about!! What sort of Army is this, by gawd!!

I said that the SELEKA swept past the South Africans without the feebliest resistance, and taking Nine KIA in such a situation is martially and absolutely unacceptable and unexplainable. How is it that a ragtag group on motorcycles and old "Technicals" with rusted old AAK AAK guns to do this to the Preeminent Military Power in the Southern African Hemisphere, smacks of something awfully smelly, aisseeeeiii!!

The M23 is nothing like these bangi-smoked-out renegades in the CAR, I tell you!!! I cannot wait for SAADC to deploy into the Ituri, Kivu!!

Then it's gets worse; 13-14 dead, 27 wounded......shiet!!

SANDF: 200 SA soldiers took on 3,000 rebels in CAR
MONDAY, 25 MARCH 2013 12:26
About 200 South African soldiers fought 3,000 rebels in the Central African Republic, resulting in the deaths of at least 13 SA National Defence Force troops, the SANDF’s General Solly Shoke said on Monday. The battle, at Bangui Base, lasted between 13 and 18 hours, Shoke said, indicating that the rebels eventually came with a white flag and negotiated surrender. Thirteen SA soldiers have been confirmed dead, but there is a fourteenth unidentified body which might be that of a missing SANDF soldier. Twenty-seven South African soldiers were wounded in clashes with rebels who captured the capital Bangui over the weekend, President Jacob Zuma also said Monday.

Just wondering why would the rebels sue for peace when they apparently overran the SANDF troops.that's a face saving gimmick....ama?

proud kenyan wrote:
more importantly,where does this leave kenyana,more specifically kenya
post-SCORK ruling and swearing in of new C-in-C, i see new opportunity
for sphere of influence to grow exponentially

@ P.K, already kenyana's eyes are trained on CAR.the LAPSSET rail line will proceed to CAR from SS & then on to cameroun.so we need a good working relationship with whoever finally controls CAR

This is what SA is saying regarding the CAR maneno. http://www.sanews.gov.za/africa/13-sa-soldiers-confirmed-dead-car

SA cannot be serious, someone needs to answer for that unacceptable loss of life, who gave the orders to engage even when it was apparent that the Bozize regime had relinquished power and fled acroos the border into DRC. With all the APCs they have and export they could only manage to put these vvvv in the theatre???
Zuma NKT!!!

ole Nkarei wrote:What the hell is with these South Africans? A small band of the ill-armed, ill-trained, poorly-led SELEKA just swept right past a full half-battalion of RSA Troops and simply strolled into Bangui - a city that these South Africans were deployed to keep safe from SELEKA. Not a shot fire. Not even the feebliest effort to halt these Brigands.

And South Africa expects to handle the M2r3 how?

@BulletMan - plenty of scarecrows keeping Whitey away presently - Mail, CAR, Tunisia, Syria, Egypt, Libya. When these dissipate, we will need some quick local smoke for certain. Btw, I saw last week a poor-grainy footage by some camera buff chap in Beledweyne of a Flight of Eagles dancing in and out of the Clouds on an extended Traininlg CAP. With distinctive and clear "ilMoraani" markings! Better tell those Jockeys the skies over Jubbaland have magnetic eyes as do those in the Homeland!

I have taken this bait and no one else seams to have taken it. there are eagles with "With distinctive and clear "ilMoraani" markings!" flying anywhere out there?

Sierra Kilo wrote:SA cannot be serious, someone needs to answer for that unacceptable loss of life, who gave the orders to engage even when it was apparent that the Bozize regime had relinquished power and fled acroos the border into DRC.

Zuma seemed to answer that queston in a media briefing earlier today;

Zuma wrote: The President said the actions of the bandits would not deter South Africa’s responsibility of working for peace and stability in Africa, and of supporting the prevention of the military overthrow of constitutionally elected governments and thus subverting democracy.

“As a member of the African Union, South Africa rejects any attempt to seize power by force, and therefore would support sanctions and other measures against the perpetrators of any unconstitutional change of government.

By the way is the SANDF any better than FARDC? may be with air support there will be different results.but from where i sit, the SADC kivu maneno may be dead even before it starts.if zuma insists on deploying, i fore-see the SA wananchi rejecting the idea.the SANDF has been demystified & the out-look is terrible.this may force kabila to face east which is good for kenyana.
BTW has SANDF ever faced a serious adversary since '94? i know Mandela sent peace keepers to DRC in the late 90s but i think that's all.& did someone mention the French president asking SA to deploy in force in CAR since Francois is bogged down in Mali.well i wonder if the request still stands

mchoraji wrote:

mogen wrote:So, the bugger [Ntaganda] was in Rwanda, after all! But why did he hand himself to the US Embassy?


http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/warlord-bosco-ntaganda-surrenders-to-us-embassy-in-rwanda/article9938733/

Now that Rwanda is indicating that it wants no role in Ntaganda's extradition to the hague, will it be another saga similar to what has been happening to the wikileaks founder in london who can't leave the Ecuadorian Embassy since the brits will arrest him? how will the americans move the terminator to the hague without rwanda stepping in & saving the back-side of their long-term ally?

http://www.capitalfm.co.ke/news/2013/03/rwanda-wants-no-role-in-dr-congo-rebels-transfer-to-icc/

What if this guy has sold his soul to tall thin one to actually go to ICC and save his face? This would really restore thin tall one's battered reputation! i.e with high level interventions from some high ranking US officials who would promise to intervene for the suspect at ICC. Sounds a crazy conspiracy theory eh? Well let us just see how it turns out

Kobooz wrote:

mchoraji wrote:

mogen wrote:So, the bugger [Ntaganda] was in Rwanda, after all! But why did he hand himself to the US Embassy?


http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/warlord-bosco-ntaganda-surrenders-to-us-embassy-in-rwanda/article9938733/

Now that Rwanda is indicating that it wants no role in Ntaganda's extradition to the hague, will it be another saga similar to what has been happening to the wikileaks founder in london who can't leave the Ecuadorian Embassy since the brits will arrest him? how will the americans move the terminator to the hague without rwanda stepping in & saving the back-side of their long-term ally?

http://www.capitalfm.co.ke/news/2013/03/rwanda-wants-no-role-in-dr-congo-rebels-transfer-to-icc/

What if this guy has sold his soul to tall thin one to actually go to ICC and save his face? This would really restore thin tall one's battered reputation! i.e with high level interventions from some high ranking US officials who would promise to intervene for the suspect at ICC. Sounds a crazy conspiracy theory eh? Well let us just see how it turns out

I also came across this interesting theory. comments please
http://www.umuvugizi.com/?p=7915&lang=en

Kobooz wrote:

mchoraji wrote:

mogen wrote:So, the bugger [Ntaganda] was in Rwanda, after all! But why did he hand himself to the US Embassy?


http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/warlord-bosco-ntaganda-surrenders-to-us-embassy-in-rwanda/article9938733/

Now that Rwanda is indicating that it wants no role in Ntaganda's extradition to the hague, will it be another saga similar to what has been happening to the wikileaks founder in london who can't leave the Ecuadorian Embassy since the brits will arrest him? how will the americans move the terminator to the hague without rwanda stepping in & saving the back-side of their long-term ally?

http://www.capitalfm.co.ke/news/2013/03/rwanda-wants-no-role-in-dr-congo-rebels-transfer-to-icc/

What if this guy has sold his soul to tall thin one to actually go to ICC and save his face? This would really restore thin tall one's battered reputation! i.e with high level interventions from some high ranking US officials who would promise to intervene for the suspect at ICC. Sounds a crazy conspiracy theory eh? Well let us just see how it turns out

I also came across this interesting theory. comments please
http://www.umuvugizi.com/?p=7915&lang=en

This is kids play Young man. UMUVUGIZI is state owned. If it was the thin man’s idea for ICC, why did Ntaganda go to the US embassy? we shall hear it from the horse mouth in a few months at the Hague.

Kobooz wrote:

Kobooz wrote:

mchoraji wrote:

mogen wrote:So, the bugger [Ntaganda] was in Rwanda, after all! But why did he hand himself to the US Embassy?


http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/warlord-bosco-ntaganda-surrenders-to-us-embassy-in-rwanda/article9938733/

Now that Rwanda is indicating that it wants no role in Ntaganda's extradition to the hague, will it be another saga similar to what has been happening to the wikileaks founder in london who can't leave the Ecuadorian Embassy since the brits will arrest him? how will the americans move the terminator to the hague without rwanda stepping in & saving the back-side of their long-term ally?

http://www.capitalfm.co.ke/news/2013/03/rwanda-wants-no-role-in-dr-congo-rebels-transfer-to-icc/

What if this guy has sold his soul to tall thin one to actually go to ICC and save his face? This would really restore thin tall one's battered reputation! i.e with high level interventions from some high ranking US officials who would promise to intervene for the suspect at ICC. Sounds a crazy conspiracy theory eh? Well let us just see how it turns out

I also came across this interesting theory. comments please
http://www.umuvugizi.com/?p=7915&lang=en

Certainly there is a hell of a lot of smoke still surrounding the entry and travel of Ntaganda from deep in Kivu de Nord, surreptitious insertion into Rwanda and an unhindered access to the American Consulate right next to the Presidency and the NSS/HQ. It is not possible that his movement were unknown to Rwanda, since the M23 Runiga?Ntaganda Faction is primarily a Rwandaise proxy, staffed / trained / equipped / commanded from Kigali. But this story of Kagame setting up Ntaganda for the fall to cushion himself from the opprobrium of Rwanda's twenty-year pillage and massacre through the Kivu and Ituri is too simplistic to merit any comment - unless of course the authors should imagine all of us simpletons without recall of events and the sanction of responsibility. Kagame will have his open day in some court one day - criminal or moral, regardless which of his mutations in the Congo and Rwanda he throws to the dogs.

The ''Umuvugizi'' story is a classic Counter-intelligence legend that evolves for basic verifiable facts and weaving in very clever conjecture and outright lies. Remember the RPF-supplanted ruling edifice of Rwanda remains solid and active in international exile, dreaming of a time it will recapture power in Kigali again. They have patience, - hell, RPF waited nearly fifty years to shoot their way, via a genocide, to power.

[color=#ff0000] I have taken this bait and no one else seams to have taken it. there are eagles with "With distinctive and clear "ilMoraani" markings!" flying anywhere out there?[/quote]

Heheheha !! It ain't bait, my brudah!! That it surely ain't. I heard tell there would be a quick look-see at some point during the C-in-C farewell Parade in MAB - a landing approach at 20feet; still got sore neck muscles - we all swiveled our heads each time there was a wooosh, even if that of the famous MAB Wind gales! All in good time.

Meanwhile 'afro-cinema' continues.the SA soldiers in CAR start spilling the beans.wonder where SA's continental power pretensions will be left when all is over

http://www.peherald.com/news/article/13590

ole Nkarei wrote:
Heheheha !! It ain't bait, my brudah!! That it surely ain't. I heard tell there would be a quick look-see at some point during the C-in-C farewell Parade in MAB - a landing approach at 20feet; still got sore neck muscles - we all swiveled our heads each time there was a wooosh, even if that of the famous MAB Wind gales! All in good time.

ON, I've kept those birds very far from my mind.mpaka the day they are publicly sighted by many witnesses.i stopped hoping so that whatever happens sitakuwa disappointed

@ mchoraji Eye wide shut eehh testing how air tight our security apparatus are. Any leak in info. and where did it leak from that kind of thing. All about intelligent tight seal. After mutaziona tuu.
@ON should have played a lottery, it was you luck day I say..CAP to be conducted off prying eyes
@blogs where else better than places with no civilization up north our forged "Area 51" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Area_51#U.S._government.27s_positions_on_Area_51

@Mchoraji - there are two reasons why you unsheath your big sword, (1) to cut your enemy down, and (2) to intimidate your enemy down. Or something that simplistic, anyway.

This entire region is in the throes of rebirth, huge oceans of Hydrocarbons just waiting under the ground in nearly all Countries. Bludgeoning Middle-Class and increased life expectations from quadrupling Economic growth rates. Political and Social evolutions as radical as some parts of Europe one hundred years ago. The drama we witness of SELEKA, Alshaabab, M23. and a retentively primitive SLPA, are minor vents to this seething mass. If you unsheathe your Big Sword without careful consideration, the whole shebang comes apart as alarm bell go up in more places than just Kenyana. And the usual reactions are an escalation of big-swords in response, and an aggravation of the Common Threat.

But if folks grow used to seeing you wearing your Big Sword without ever unsheathing it in anger or in play, the Big Sword becomes an implied Threat, a Deterrent. Moreover, in the need to stay ahead of the Pack, you training as best as possible,and as many welders of the big sword as possible, how to use the Big Sword, so that you set a catch-up situation subsequent to those alarm bells going off.

The chaps in Tact-Air know well what they are doing. Have belief, bana!

Hi buddies at last Siera leone says it's ready to send the battalion it pledged for AMISOM.their president bid them farewell a few days ago.there was talk of reducing the kenyan contingent by a battalion when the siera leoneans showed up.is this still the position?

Sierra Leone is ready to send 850 soldiers to Somalia to aid the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) in its fight against al-Shabaab, AFP reported Wednesday (March 27th).

Sierra Leonean President Ernest Koroma addressed the men as they took a break from intensive training in Freetown on Tuesday, telling them they were "on the brink [of embarking] on a great journey of peace, a journey of charitable gallantry, a journey to showcase how a transformed nation and its transformed military could be a force for democracy, peace and reconciliation".

Sierra Leone will deploy the battalion to Mogadishu in early April, the Sierra Leone Television channel reported.

"You have an overwhelming superiority in logistics, organisation and global goodwill with the hopes and prayers of Sierra Leoneans everywhere," Koroma said in the televised speech

mchoraji wrote:Meanwhile 'afro-cinema' continues.the SA soldiers in CAR start spilling the beans.wonder where SA's continental power pretensions will be left when all is over

http://www.peherald.com/news/article/13590

ole Nkarei wrote:
Heheheha !! It ain't bait, my brudah!! That it surely ain't. I heard tell there would be a quick look-see at some point during the C-in-C farewell Parade in MAB - a landing approach at 20feet; still got sore neck muscles - we all swiveled our heads each time there was a wooosh, even if that of the famous MAB Wind gales! All in good time.

It's gross INDISCIPLINE for soldiers to speak to the press about a deployment or operations the way they did in that piece. Which is not to say that their operation was well thought-out, coz it was far from that. I saw a pic of a couple of overweight SA soldiers cruising in Bangui in an open-roof 'technical' in Somali-speak and wondered what their role was before all this.

South Africa has no heart nor stomach for a bloody fight any longer. Pampered citizenry that have see their lives transformed by 'affirmative action'' riding on the guilt of Apartheid - Nothing comes from Nothing. The Nzuma Black Soldiers look/sound/act more like unionized civil servants!! I mean, National Soldiers abandon a fire-fire (after the poorly armed and lead enemy has had his way with them with abandon) and promptly hide in the barracks of a friendly force crying to be repatriated home ASAP! And talking Treasonable Mutiny at any journalist that has a scribbling pad and a camera!! The last real SANDF soldiers went in against SWAPO decades ago. And almost to a man those were really white soldiers from a dozen Countries moon-lighting in SANDF to safeguard the privileged lifestyles of the Apartheid South Africans!!

Now, how in hell does Nzuma propose to give confidence to anyone in these Kenyana States about a Military Shield with SANDF's name and emblems on it? Ati the ''Primary Intervention / Stabilization Force in Negro-Africa'' to keep Whitey (Francois, Sammy, Johnny) away from performing their old-aged Military Adventures in Africa in the guise of Stabilization!! Eiiish!

Spartan wrote:It's gross INDISCIPLINE for soldiers to speak to the press about a deployment or operations the way they did in that piece. Which is not to say that their operation was well thought-out, coz it was far from that. I saw a pic of a couple of overweight SA soldiers cruising in Bangui in an open-roof 'technical' in Somali-speak and wondered what their role was before all this.

ole Nkarei wrote:South Africa has no heart nor stomach for a bloody fight any longer. Pampered citizenry that have see their lives transformed by 'affirmative action'' riding on the guilt of Apartheid - Nothing comes from Nothing. The Nzuma Black Soldiers look/sound/act more like unionized civil servants!! I mean, National Soldiers abandon a fire-fire (after the poorly armed and lead enemy has had his way with them with abandon) and promptly hide in the barracks of a friendly force crying to be repatriated home ASAP! And talking Treasonable Mutiny at any journalist that has a scribbling pad and a camera!! The last real SANDF soldiers went in against SWAPO decades ago. And almost to a man those were really white soldiers from a dozen Countries moon-lighting in SANDF to safeguard the privileged lifestyles of the Apartheid South Africans!!

Now, how in hell does Nzuma propose to give confidence to anyone in these Kenyana States about a Military Shield with SANDF's name and emblems on it? Ati the ''Primary Intervention / Stabilization Force in Negro-Africa'' to keep Whitey (Francois, Sammy, Johnny) away from performing their old-aged Military Adventures in Africa in the guise of Stabilization!! Eiiish!

Spartan wrote:It's gross INDISCIPLINE for soldiers to speak to the press about a deployment or operations the way they did in that piece. Which is not to say that their operation was well thought-out, coz it was far from that. I saw a pic of a couple of overweight SA soldiers cruising in Bangui in an open-roof 'technical' in Somali-speak and wondered what their role was before all this.

Intresting documentary showing how SANDF fought against SWAPO. It has 4 parts
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0dNi--acWe0

Let's face it soldiers; A small dose of real or faked flamboyance opens doors. And if ostentation is the hottest selling social commodity in Kenyana today, the largest concetration of pretentious p'ple reside in Chigali! Period! And Ntaganda here is paying the viper while the dyed-in-the-wool Tall-Thin-One (TTO) is getting the music.

TTO had been a nice guy since 1994, until 2000+0.25% when he just got bored of being nice & developed a disconcerting character of having alittle fun in the backyard of his neighbour. As far as i can vividly remember, more than half of Rwanda's budget is from western aid(I stand to be corrected), [This's one thing TTO can't afford to foil with, whatsoever]. And DRC has been such a shrine-temple to balance the figures in the National budget. The "Peacenik tendencies of today's world-order" not withstanding, he sent his forged 'ally' into DRC.

Now the 'ally' is in Geneva, fully loaded with all the "Kivu/Ituri transcripted-episodes" flashing across his face,surely every eye-blink.

To try to imagine that Ntaganda will box-in TTO is plain poetic. The music faded out immediately, the moment Ntaganda walked out of Chigali 'swaggring'. I sometimes try to picture out how the 'negotiations' were done- glimpsy. I tell you this dude is even capable of convincing M7, Kikwete & Ole man to also contribute troops for an EAC force to invade Eastern DRC on the pretext of imposing peace! Eeeish! Neverthless, the convict will have some humble time to fully explain why his ragtag militias harassed the DRC population daily, runing-amok allover, raping all the women they bumped into, Never to mention TTO's official name.

To think that TTO can afford to lose half-a-budget-funds of his economy, when p'ple have relentlessly pointed figures at him accusing him of DRC's misfortunes, doesn't even qualify for a thinly-veiled bigotry. And he might continue using people, pretentiously like sacrificial lambs to manouver his ways through, if not tamed. God forbid.

Hehe,
"Old soldiers never die-they simply fade away". A phylosopy, ole Nkarei & co-buddies strongly believe in But this warrior is neither dead nor fading away!! Still, not yet.

(Apologies for the long-broken-down postulation. Was using a hand-held device with low GB.)

Finally the UNSC voted authorisation for the Kampala-Talks International Neutral Force into the DRC with an extremely fluid aggressor-mandate - three infantry and one artillery Battalions and a mixed Company of SpecOps and Recon Troops. TCC initially all SADC - South Africa, Malawi and Tanzania. With Rapid force Projection both Ground and Air, Tactical Surveillance and Comms, and Mobile Ground Tactical Field Arty and Heli-Gunship Platforms. Presumably SANDF will configure the SpecOps & Recon Company while JWTZ the Field Arty Battalion and One Infantry Battalion and Malawi the other Infantry Battalion.

Theoretically an overkill for the flux situation in Ituri and both Kivu Nord et Sud. Not enough to effect Regime-change in any of the ICGLR even with a confluence with the USRangers and French forces in this Theatre. Insufficient to create any new state from the DRC. We wait and hope this experiment does not go wrong in implementation. Which is fraught with enormous risks of widening the M23 conflicts into an Africa-conflagration.

Kenya will sit this out. I trust #Spartan will too.

No one can possibly believe that a whole Company of USRamgers complete with all Strategic and Tactic Intelligence and Satellite Assets were scattered all over the ICGLR region hunting Joseph Kony - an ineffectual spectre long rendered irrelevant by Spartan, Flying Crane and compatriots in their traditional Operations Areas. While Ntaganda and a motley of Irregulars continued to lay waste to Eastern DRC causing the displacement of Millions, hundred Thousand dead and Billions of Dollars of lost economic opportunities!?

What Sammy has done by this beautifully mounted and crafted, forceful extraction of Ntaganda is to put a very tight leash on the scrawny neck of the Tall Thin Man which Sammy can tighten or even cut as will suit Sammy. No more "unauthorised". Adventurism into the DRC by the Tall Thin Man. Finito all dreams of Tutsi Hegemony kabsa kabsa.

ole Nkarei wrote:Finally the UNSC voted authorisation for the Kampala-Talks International Neutral Force into the DRC with an extremely fluid aggressor-mandate - three infantry and one artillery Battalions and a mixed Company of SpecOps and Recon Troops. TCC initially all SADC - South Africa, Malawi and Tanzania. With Rapid force Projection both Ground and Air, Tactical Surveillance and Comms, and Mobile Ground Tactical Field Arty and Heli-Gunship Platforms. Presumably SANDF will configure the SpecOps & Recon Company while JWTZ the Field Arty Battalion and One Infantry Battalion and Malawi the other Infantry Battalion.

Theoretically an overkill for the flux situation in Ituri and both Kivu Nord et Sud. Not enough to effect Regime-change in any of the ICGLR even with a confluence with the USRangers and French forces in this Theatre. Insufficient to create any new state from the DRC. We wait and hope this experiment does not go wrong in implementation. Which is fraught with enormous risks of widening the M23 conflicts into an Africa-conflagration.

Kenya will sit this out. I trust #Spartan will too.

Everything about the conception, planning, size and even composition of the TCC suggests that they had mainly M23, and by extension, Rwanda, in mind. An Arty battalion is effective against semi-conventional adui with known location (read M23), but woefully useless against small bands of highly mobile enemy in the jungles (ADF and FDLR). You will all recall the last time MONUC tried to take the fight to the rebels 8-US trained Specops Guatemala soldiers were killed. That happened once and MONUC never got around to giving it another try. With an offensive against the ADF or FDLR, this would have to happen weekly. With Bangui in mind, do the Boers have enough 'stomach' for these kinds of losses.

In short, this intervention force was conceived and put in place with M23 as the enemy in mind, but M23 is not likely to continue its armed struggle with Makenga at the helm, having purged all Rwanda-leaning elements. Is this intervention force ready to take on the ADF and FDLR on their own turf after the M23 effectively pulls the rug from under their feet by signing a deal and even integrating with FARDC? If they do, the biggest beneficiary will be Uganda.

Spartan wrote:

ole Nkarei wrote:Finally the UNSC voted authorisation for the Kampala-Talks International Neutral Force into the DRC with an extremely fluid aggressor-mandate - three infantry and one artillery Battalions and a mixed Company of SpecOps and Recon Troops. TCC initially all SADC - South Africa, Malawi and Tanzania. With Rapid force Projection both Ground and Air, Tactical Surveillance and Comms, and Mobile Ground Tactical Field Arty and Heli-Gunship Platforms. Presumably SANDF will configure the SpecOps & Recon Company while JWTZ the Field Arty Battalion and One Infantry Battalion and Malawi the other Infantry Battalion.

Theoretically an overkill for the flux situation in Ituri and both Kivu Nord et Sud. Not enough to effect Regime-change in any of the ICGLR even with a confluence with the USRangers and French forces in this Theatre. Insufficient to create any new state from the DRC. We wait and hope this experiment does not go wrong in implementation. Which is fraught with enormous risks of widening the M23 conflicts into an Africa-conflagration.

Kenya will sit this out. I trust #Spartan will too.

Of course we will sit this out. Been reading what's between the lines of the diplomatic mambo-jambo of the resolution here. Of importance now will be the next chess move, notably by the M23. Gen. Makenga has come across as an unassuming, even reluctant player leading many to question whether he has the ambition necessary for the long haul.

My own assessment is this;
Gen. Makenga, having consolidated his hold on the M23 following the rout and exile of both Runiga and Ntaganda, will lead his forces to some kind of deal with Kabila in the not so distant future.

With the M23 out of the picture, the intervention force will be left with ADF and FDLR to contend with. Now, wajameni, ADF is a totally different ball game who, if you ask us, come highly recommended respected as a fighting outfit. Both ADF and FDLR live in large areas with their families and go about their activities like they are Congolese peasants, levying taxes on any activities that are taking place in their areas, even running businesses like drug shops and timber.

Everything about the conception, planning, size and even composition of the TCC suggests that they had mainly M23, and by extension, Rwanda, in mind. An Arty battalion is effective against semi-conventional adui with known location (read M23), but woefully useless against small bands of highly mobile enemy in the jungles (ADF and FDLR). You will all recall the last time MONUC tried to take the fight to the rebels 8-US trained Specops Guatemala soldiers were killed. That happened once and MONUC never got around to giving it another try. With an offensive against the ADF or FDLR, this would have to happen weekly. With Bangui in mind, do the Boers have enough 'stomach' for these kinds of losses.

In short, this intervention force was conceived and put in place with M23 as the enemy in mind, but M23 is not likely to continue its armed struggle with Makenga at the helm, having purged all Rwanda-leaning elements. Is this intervention force ready to take on the ADF and FDLR on their own turf after the M23 effectively pulls the rug from under their feet by signing a deal and even integrating with FARDC? If they do, the biggest beneficiary will be Uganda.

My reading of this exactly, @Spartan. A while back, I postulated that the Implosion of the M23 was clearly the working of your Ole Man in conjunction with the IGAD as a ploy to make obsolete / unnecessary a SADC Intervention into the Ituri and Kuvus. Because it had become very obvious that South Africa had more than Africa-altruism for demanding the NIF be solely comprised of SADC-TCC (under the guise of declenching the Mutual Defense Pact of SADC!!). Forgive me for crediting your Ole Man M7 for this beautiful Tactical Coup against the Tall Thin Man and his Western backers, but is the specific data that weighs my little desk. Kabila had earlier consented to EAC/IGAD arm-twisting to make accommodation for Mukenga's Group under a Peace-deal driven from Kampalaunder the Aegis of the ICGLR, which the Tall Thin Man and his Western Backers perceive as an end to Rwanda Expansionism into DRC that has heldthe Entire Kivu and Ituri Hostage to Rwandan + Western Economic interests.

Splitting the M23 was a brilliant Coup which I cannotexpress enough my admiration for. With Mukenga formally assimilated back into Congolaise Society and Government, effectively the Rebellion is over, and all other noises from Rwandaise-leaning Tutsi elements willbe easy to deal with. In simple terms, M7 HAS MOVED THIS ENTIRE DEBATE
INTO THE POLITICAL REALMS away from the Military Realm in one swipe of his brilliant hands!! And this is essentially what has lacked thus far, and which all indigent irregular elements (FLDR, Mai Mai, etc) will be most happy to partake in to reach political accommodation without the attendant alternative of war. The Ugandan rebel groups operating in the
Congo and CAR are effectively denied of staging groups outside Uganda, and will be not too difficult for the UPDF to mop up and exterminate in due course of time.

Now, when NIF does deploy, the scenario Spartan paints is with acute realism. I am not sure that much will be achieved with this NIF unless the EAC determines to supplement the NIF with an aggregated Political dimension along the lines defined above. At the end of it all, only a political accord will resolve finally this DRC-Eastern Conundrum.

For this alone, I salute the Old Lion, H.E The Honorable President Yoweri Museveni. Btw, info just in indicate that the Old Lion has given firm instructions to your contingent in the CAR to continue Operations against Kony despite the express demand of the SELEKA Government to have all foreign Forces including the UPDF withdraw forthwith from the CAR. My kind of War leader, aiseei!!

Several new outlets circulating the rumor that South Africa is amassing troops within striking distance of C.A.R, principally Entebbe Airforce Base.

That is lazy and sensational journalism (I pity ordinary folk who get all their information from newspapers and sites, I really do). South Africa has no moral right or declared strategic interests in C.A.R to warrant this kind of involvement. My own read on events is that the reported 'build-up' of armed Boers at Entebbe and the sighted C-130 are all an elaborate Medevac Ops by the South Africans. You wouldn't send unarmed medics to a hostile theater to evacuate your wounded, would ya? The C-130s are airborne 'hospitals' with the ability to sustain lives of the seriuosly injured.

The Seleka rebels, fresh with their victories against Bozize and the Boers, threatened to expel all foreign troops, including the UPDF. I I really think they owe it to themselves not to attack the 3,000 or so AU-mandated UPDF in C.A.R and surrounding haridhi hunting Kony - they've stepped on so many toes from Ndjamena to Pretoria to begin a fight with, you know whom. They also number at roughly 3,000 but, believe me, they are no much. I've hears there is a conference in the next week or so in N'Djamena(Bozize's earstwhile backers) where Zuma is heading with six ministers, notable among them Minister of State Security Siyabonga Cwele, and Minister of Defence Nosiviwe Mapisa Nqakula. Our Ole Man, on his part, had a one on one with AU Chair Dlamini Zuma on the same topic on his BRICS visit to Durban this week. Don't be surprised if consensus is building within the AU that the Seleke rebels are an 'undesirable' phenomenon.

Now, ON and other like-minded may feel a little betrayal for working with the Boers., understandably. What is at stake for both countries is greater than petty differences over the DRC. In any case, The Boers can't access East DRC but through Ebb. Yes, the Ole Man is as cunning as he's perceived to be.

Now, many people are begining to see-thru the inconsistensies in the initial S.A record of what happened. On the story that 3,000 rebels enetered the South African based manned by 200 (who had already lost 13 with 27 injured),

Brig Gen. Xolani Mabanga wrote:"If I'm fighting you and you realise that I am running out of
ammunition, which means that I cannot fight you anymore, why do you have
to surrender?

Lakini waBoer

@Spartan - there has been a lot of chatter and movement into and out Entebbe in last week. Seems too heavy to be entirely the SANDF/CASEVAC from CAR. Strong whiffs floating of an unsanctioned expeditionary jaunt by the SANDF Brass into CAR that NZuma (it is rumored) managed to forestall before the Military Hotheads triggered deployment. Can you validate this smokey from where you are?

Some more whiff about the Old Lion mulling on taking out SELEKA with the Forces he already has in the CAR - how many are they, in actual fact btw? If he chooses to, your chaps will steamrolled over every SELEKA that stands to fight. Kinda hoping he does.- coz I might just wrangle some MoB ot even better as EAC Liaison in that action too!

ole Nkarei wrote:@Spartan - there has been a lot of chatter and movement into and out Entebbe in last week. Seems too heavy to be entirely the SANDF/CASEVAC from CAR. Strong whiffs floating of an unsanctioned expeditionary jaunt by the SANDF Brass into CAR that NZuma (it is rumored) managed to forestall before the Military Hotheads triggered deployment. Can you validate this smokey from where you are?

The South Africans, I am meant to believe, are in Entebbe awaiting a decision from Zuma either to reinforce what's left of their squad of 200 in Bangui, or to move the whole 200 troops to Bangui to get their number to 400 as agreed between South Africa and C.A.R before the rebels took power. The heavier weapons they are carrying are a response to the criticism that their troops were armed with only light weapons against rebels with 40mm canons. Whatever happens, the Seleka won't take kindly to any new foreign troops not invited by themselves arriving in Bangui. Only problem is - they don't control the Airport, the French do.


You know, it's really hard to receive body bags and you say, "Ok, this was a bad decision for us to be in C.A.R, let's cut our losses, bring the boys home, and blah blah". What SANDF does next is of import to many of their current and future SANDF deployments. Make no mistake, rebels in North Kivu are watching to see what they can take out of this situation.

Despite Reuters attributing reports that the South Africans are planning an attack to a 'senior Ugandan Officer', the numbers of troops on ground and their possible justification say a different story. But you would be interested in doing a double take on what the S.A Military Attache to Uganda said, and the catchwords were that South Africa 'wouldn't go it alone', and that it would need 'another African country'.

For now, the ball is in the hands of the Seleka rebels. If they drop their unreasonable demands and work to reassure the AU and other African states (read Chad, South Africa and Uganda), they will be in business. But if they so much as fire one volley at Ugandan forces, the order was given to them already to defend themselves.

Spartan wrote:

ole Nkarei wrote:@Spartan - there has been a lot of chatter and movement into and out Entebbe in last week. Seems too heavy to be entirely the SANDF/CASEVAC from CAR. Strong whiffs floating of an unsanctioned expeditionary jaunt by the SANDF Brass into CAR that NZuma (it is rumored) managed to forestall before the Military Hotheads triggered deployment. Can you validate this smokey from where you are?

The South Africans, I am meant to believe, are in Entebbe awaiting a decision from Zuma either to reinforce what's left of their squad of 200 in Bangui, or to move the whole 200 troops to Bangui to get their number to 400 as agreed between South Africa and C.A.R before the rebels took power. The heavier weapons they are carrying are a response to the criticism that their troops were armed with only light weapons against rebels with 40mm canons. Whatever happens, the Seleka won't take kindly to any new foreign troops not invited by themselves arriving in Bangui. Only problem is - they don't control the Airport, the French do.


You know, it's really hard to receive body bags and you say, "Ok, this was a bad decision for us to be in C.A.R, let's cut our losses, bring the boys home, and blah blah". What SANDF does next is of import to many of their current and future SANDF deployments. Make no mistake, rebels in North Kivu are watching to see what they can take out of this situation.

Despite Reuters attributing reports that the South Africans are planning an attack to a 'senior Ugandan Officer', the numbers of troops on ground and their possible justification say a different story. But you would be interested in doing a double take on what the S.A Military Attache to Uganda said, and the catchwords were that South Africa 'wouldn't go it alone', and that it would need 'another African country'.

For now, the ball is in the hands of the Seleka rebels. If they drop their unreasonable demands and work to reassure the AU and other African states (read Chad, South Africa and Uganda), they will be in business. But if they so much as fire one volley at Ugandan forces, the order was given to them already to defend themselves.

@Spartan in all theatrics i keep asking myself how do these guys get their supplies? To sustain fighting men in the bush requires deep pockets and logistics. With all the consensus by AU and international community why are we not able to nip these guys by the roots?. Somebody please xplain!

@Uzi - great question that one. But the simple answer is that there must develop CONSENSUS for Military Action in Resource-rich Africa because frequently these armed irregular Negative Forces are proxies of some of the very same States external to Africa that Consensus must be sort. The end-results / objectives of any such Military Intervention must offer some level of continuity to these puppeteer external powers of whatever of their Interests that motivated their formulated / training / equipping / financing these irregular Negative Forces. See how long the UNSC-sanctioned Mali Mission has takento get off the table? IN the case of the ludicrous SANDF build-up in Entebbe, everyone is very wary of the fully-constituted UPDF Brigade already strategically poised in the CAR, the French, the Belgians, the South Africans, hell - everyone. Without the Old Lion very express, and very unequivocal concordance, no one will take precipitous action that might alter the balance of things around the ICGLR Region any-time-soon!

@Spartan - in the small restricted circles I pry my trade in, there is very clear anticipation / excitement to see these SANDF in battle-mode, finally; we (Kenyana) will range up against them in the next decade or thereabouts, without doubt, and have been War-gaming during this Decade using the modules proffered by the colonial engagements against UNITA and SWAPO two decades ago. Kama wataingia CAR na Eastern DRC, na sisi sote pia tutakuwa pale pale hapo na hapo tukishuhudia yote,joo!!