Kenya Defence Forces (KDF)

Couple things have already clarified since the Uganda Minister Regional Affairs dropped this half-ton bunker buster.

1. Uganda is not posturing with this maneno like Rwanda did earlier with the Darfur Mission. This card is officially transmitted to EAC and IGAD - as a possible course of action for which everybody is screaming for reactive projections driven by a UPDF withdrawal. We are not "gaming" this - Policy Organs are demanding solid input.

2. Without UGABAG 10 the entire AMISOM mission collapses immediately. KDF remains fixated with the objectives of OLN despite rahatting to AMISOM while Ethiopia was reassured by KDF rehatting and kept their elephant-in-the-room ENDF out of Theater beyond the initial incursion. AMISOM remains the sole guarantor of a Zoomaliya Federal State and the legal bulwark against fragmentation driven by narrow sectarian forces who are themselves captives of avaricious international commercial groupings.

3. A collapse of AMISOM opens the door to fragmentation os Zoomaliya. KDF pushing across the Jubba River and establishes a line halfway to the Shabelle Valley through Bay and Bikool to join the Ethiopia Border. ENDF jumps into Hiiraan and enjoins Galmudug and Puntland. Somaliland effectively severs away. And henceforth God help us all.

This eventuality promises endless and enveloping violence in the Horn with definitive spill over effects all over EAC. Obviously LAPSSET will be still-born and viability of Kenyana evaporates as the anticipated "about-turn" from Eurocenticism to Asiacenticism along the African Indian Ocean seaboard dies suddenly.

Of course the usual international puppeteers are intent on engineering a weak accord between Kabila and the Tall Man which entrenches the century-old Status Quo in the DRC. M7/EAC-expanded drive for a break with these western-led prescriptions in favor of a holistic approach informed by history and demography of the Great Lakes region. Talk of a preemptive deployment of an EAC force is gaining ground in tandem with Uganda Threat of a withdrawal of UGABAG.

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