Kenya Defence Forces (KDF)

That is one fecked up place, men. Makes Somalia welcoming but for the heat and dust. Couple things about the Safari there.

The UNSC has subordinated the NIF of the ICGLR to MONUSCO in every sense. Command TOR, kila kitu bana! Terms of Reference are ICGLR's but Rules of Engagement greatly altered despite the general wording remaining unchanged (go in deal with all negative forces). It looks kinda doubtful SAADCbwill deploy in force under these circumstances. Eh Tempest - your insight?

To Counter this reversal, the Ole Man (M7) pushed through EAC and on to AU-Peace & Security Commission that Africa take leadership of MONUSCO from Command to Force-composition. It looks very that this will happen pretty soon and then it will not matter if NIF is domesticated to MONUSCO or not - all negative elements and their Foreign Connections are history in the Congo Basin.

In simplistic terms, Mission was a straightforward Intel-Drop without expectations of Aggressor-Contact. To generate clarity into the confusing Mosaic of fast-mutating Armed Groupings in this Sector; and validate repeated Inter of Hostile posturing by the M23 towards a retake of Goma and ground earlier ceded. it was also instructive to assess MONUSCO's deployment and preparedness in response to the increasing hostile environment from the situation above described. Ran a dozen or so forays with some of #Spartan's Colleagues from Bunagana - mean,hard,tough Uniforms, those chaps!

My gut feeling is that before the NIF goes in, Kabila WILL precipitate a crisis in South Kivu so as to draw in SAADC under their Mutual Defence Treaty Ambit - a rapid deployment of SAADC in DRC will leave the rest of everybody playing "catch-up" which I aint sure how EAC/IGAD will play. @Tempest - what's cooking, bro?

More later.

This is from the strategic Intelligence News.

Uhuru Kenyatta was declared the 4th Kenyan president before mid-morning 9th March 2013 after Kenya decided he was its best bet.

Kenyatta won the election with a significant and commanding lead of near 1million votes beating Raila Odinga and promising Kenya a rapid economic growth.

This remarkable win weathers many storms turbulently homing on Uhuru Kenyatta including British attempt to influence the outcome of the election besides the ICC.

Kenyatta becomes a president of a rapidly developing African country that has broke ranks with the West besides becoming a military power after destroying Islamist terrorist and militant Somalia in Somalia, beating the West and the NATO counter-terrorism operations hands down.

There are repercussions and geopolitical ramifications to the Uhuru Kenyatta Win as 4th President of Kenya and almost every foreign envoy in Kenya is rethinking his engagement rules after many of them came against his candidature besides threatened to sanction his presidency.

Strategic Intelligence Service Analyzes Scenarios

Economic factors that make Uhuru a powerful and one of the most sought African president by the Western diplomats are many.

Oil and Gas discoveries and confirmation of their commercial values, coalmines, titanium export, and gold and geothermal power generation are key attractions pulling edgy investors to Kenya.

This wealth alongside massive infrastructure programs under Chinese contractors and a successful anti-terror operation in Somalia makes Kenya an attractive besides strategic development partner and investment hub.

Kenya no longer leans on the West for development programs; rather, it has set the terms of diplomatic engagement very clear, that, only development partnership makes diplomatic relations sense.

This puts the West and the European Union in such an awkward position and seemingly losing face after failing to stymies the Kenyatta presidency.

Kenyatta insists, Kenya does not need the West than the West needs Kenya, a very significant statement since Russia, China, and the Asian economies have become Kenya’s strategic development partners.

By failing to work with Kenyatta, the West risks losing vital assets, investments, and funded programs managed by international NGO’s and the United Nations Development programs across East and central Africa.

The West will need this man, more than Kenya needs them.

Military, Intelligence and Terrorism Teams
China has been covertly funding Kenyan military and intelligence operations in the region, making China one of the most important development and security programs partner with Kenya making the West worried its losing clout.

The United States alone has invested billions of dollars through military, intelligence, and counter-terrorism programs across East and Central Africa with its main forward bases in Kenya.
Kenya National Intelligence Service shares intelligence with the Central Intelligence Agency CIA, conducts covert anti-terror operations alongside the Kenya NIS and Defense Forces.
Sidelining Kenyatta would see these intelligence and counter-terrorism joint task force programs collapse as Kenyatta seeks alternative partners. The West will not take such immense risks whatsoever.
The West particularly Britain will find it very difficult to charm Uhuru Kenyatta enough to make business remain as usual in the interest of immense Western intelligence, military, and economic investments in the country and the unstable region.
Kenya has been upgrading its military capability by sourcing new weaponry from China, Russia, and Ukraine further sidelining the West, which in the past enjoyed these lucrative contracts through their defense equipment contracting firms.

Regional Geopolitical Outcome

Kenya is a regional economic giant that in 10 years under a good regime can overtake economies like South Africa, besides the regional military superpower.
Every military or regionally important security intelligence operation planned by the West is coordinated by Kenya; Kenyatta’s astute character and near-radical resolve observed in his political self defines a more power-hungry general who will increase Kenya’s geopolitical influence.
Kenyatta is not very diplomatic particularly in geopolitical scenarios; he will make snappy what he perceives a threat under a credible intelligence report, hence halt any advancement of an agenda that injures the country.
Kenya’s neighbors and international partners will contend with this character hence approach Kenyatta with enough caution to ensure, though distant, a relation is established and maintained.
The West will have a big challenge convincing Kenyatta they wish Kenya well, since Kenyatta already views them skeptically and has often told them off and they, have constantly convinced him, they are Greeks bearing gifts hence he should be wary of them.
The influence Kenyatta has across Africa is significant further denting the West influence in the dynamic regional geopolitics, particularly the economics and military operations.
The Uhuru Kenyatta win is a big loss to the West since it has lost all its grip on the region to a hardliner politician who does not view them as partners anymore than enemies of Kenya.
The West indeed will have to bow to Uhuru Kenyatta or lose to Russia, Japan, and China all who now fund Kenyan security and economic development projects with less ado.

looks like were still on the political discourse. someone kindly end this so some of us that have been out in the cold waiting for it to end can re-kit. After all, exciting times for project Kenyana arent they?

Aiseei, I agree with #Areba. Plenty of Political Blogs to air political opinions. We are still too close to the General Elections.

There is a dearth of news about activity in Sector II. The Jubbaland initiative is fully in the Political Arena; the SFG has ratcheted her resistance to IGAD taking lead in the Federating of Soomaliya which has created a strange nexus between Al-shabaab and the Soomaliya Federal Government (SFG) or at least Soomaliya Army; military action has been fully an an Attrition Action against Al-shabaab's Command & Control & Communication Structure which is unlikely to be trumpeted publicly; and finally that our Security and Defence Agencies are on a slow-march between an Outgoing and an Incoming C-in-C which is understandable - the Outgoing C-in-C is loathe to instruct action that may result in Kenyans in Body Bags this close to the end of his Tenure. There will be very aggressive action within days of the change-over of Command and a rapid close of the Soomaliya Sector. Kenyana is bubbling fir attention.

areba wrote:looks like were still on the political discourse. someone kindly end this so some of us that have been out in the cold waiting for it to end can re-kit. After all, exciting times for project Kenyana arent they?

The C-I-C has some precedent implications on a country's military whatsoever, something not even worthy telling as most of us here are well-versed with such kind of nuggets. For me, I wouldn't rule out such kind of discussions as misplaced here in TEA. But unfortunately, it's like I'm on the loosing end of the "tag-war", not far-fetched after-all. And gently does it..

Re-kit yourself #Collins, no need to worry ole Nkarei.

ole Nkarei wrote:That is one fecked up place, men. Makes Somalia welcoming but for the heat and dust. Couple things about the Safari there.

The UNSC has subordinated the NIF of the ICGLR to MONUSCO in every sense. Command TOR, kila kitu bana! Terms of Reference are ICGLR's but Rules of Engagement greatly altered despite the general wording remaining unchanged (go in deal with all negative forces). It looks kinda doubtful SAADCbwill deploy in force under these circumstances. Eh Tempest - your insight?

To Counter this reversal, the Ole Man (M7) pushed through EAC and on to AU-Peace & Security Commission that Africa take leadership of MONUSCO from Command to Force-composition. It looks very that this will happen pretty soon and then it will not matter if NIF is domesticated to MONUSCO or not - all negative elements and their Foreign Connections are history in the Congo Basin.

In simplistic terms, Mission was a straightforward Intel-Drop without expectations of Aggressor-Contact. To generate clarity into the confusing Mosaic of fast-mutating Armed Groupings in this Sector; and validate repeated Inter of Hostile posturing by the M23 towards a retake of Goma and ground earlier ceded. it was also instructive to assess MONUSCO's deployment and preparedness in response to the increasing hostile environment from the situation above described. Ran a dozen or so forays with some of #Spartan's Colleagues from Bunagana - mean,hard,tough Uniforms, those chaps!

My gut feeling is that before the NIF goes in, Kabila WILL precipitate a crisis in South Kivu so as to draw in SAADC under their Mutual Defence Treaty Ambit - a rapid deployment of SAADC in DRC will leave the rest of everybody playing "catch-up" which I aint sure how EAC/IGAD will play. @Tempest - what's cooking, bro?

More later.

You passed me by and didn't stop for a bunch of matooke! That won't stop me from asking for my githeri next time I am in Nairobi.

@Spartan - sorry mate. Time constraints on a rushed assignment. Quick jump from Eldoret to Goma and ride & tab to staging ground. Little else for anything, didn't even vote, dammit! But Liaison with your chaps was first class - you know, we ARE getting pretty good with these Linkages across Borders.

Welcome for Githeri anytime. And some NyamChom Kachubari Mursik etc. Last time your chaps were here on the Urban E&E/S.E.R.E, I passed around an Invitation with no takers! None of our Ugandan TEA was part of that detachment, I guess. Anyway, take you up on that Matoke offer one of these days.

Something i noted today, lots of equipment on the road from Msa to Nairobi. I counted 50 trucks with an assortment of UN labelled excavators, light trucks, armoured trucks, dozers, bowsers, even a drilling rig. Couldnt help but wonder, GOSS? DRC? Somalia? (Isnt Mogadisho port supposed to be functional? Plus as far as Im concerned, the Boers adventure into DRC is more covert than this?

Check your PM, sir!

ole Nkarei wrote:That is one fecked up place, men. Makes Somalia welcoming but for the heat and dust. Couple things about the Safari there.

The UNSC has subordinated the NIF of the ICGLR to MONUSCO in every sense. Command TOR, kila kitu bana! Terms of Reference are ICGLR's but Rules of Engagement greatly altered despite the general wording remaining unchanged (go in deal with all negative forces). It looks kinda doubtful SAADCbwill deploy in force under these circumstances. Eh Tempest - your insight?

To Counter this reversal, the Ole Man (M7) pushed through EAC and on to AU-Peace & Security Commission that Africa take leadership of MONUSCO from Command to Force-composition. It looks very that this will happen pretty soon and then it will not matter if NIF is domesticated to MONUSCO or not - all negative elements and their Foreign Connections are history in the Congo Basin.

In simplistic terms, Mission was a straightforward Intel-Drop without expectations of Aggressor-Contact. To generate clarity into the confusing Mosaic of fast-mutating Armed Groupings in this Sector; and validate repeated Inter of Hostile posturing by the M23 towards a retake of Goma and ground earlier ceded. it was also instructive to assess MONUSCO's deployment and preparedness in response to the increasing hostile environment from the situation above described. Ran a dozen or so forays with some of #Spartan's Colleagues from Bunagana - mean,hard,tough Uniforms, those chaps!

My gut feeling is that before the NIF goes in, Kabila WILL precipitate a crisis in South Kivu so as to draw in SAADC under their Mutual Defence Treaty Ambit - a rapid deployment of SAADC in DRC will leave the rest of everybody playing "catch-up" which I aint sure how EAC/IGAD will play. @Tempest - what's cooking, bro?

More later.

@Technician - I will check, buddy, soon as it gets through the servers. And pls don't be unfriendly, man - my "ON" Call-sign is good forbme. Honest, I come here to break the tedium of a "Sir"-chocked day! Kafathali!

@Areba - before we jumped in lower Jubba last year, UN was pushing to "reorganise" tthe Refugee Camps up north - housing blocks, public facilities, roads, ablutions and sewage works, boreholes, perimeter embankments, etc. GoK was reluctant. Then we jumped off and took 150K sq km and GoK orders stop of new refugees registrations and demands relocation of these Camps into Soomaliya. Whitey panics at the prospect of leaving the safety of their privileges lifestyles for the full-time austerity of operating in Soomaliya. Frantic efforts are made to accelerate the earlier idea of "reorganising" the Camps.

Hence the equipment you saw. If it was my docket, I close these camps and move every soul back into Soomaliya today.

aaaah, I hope. (No Im certain) incoming CiC will pick on where the old leaves it at with these guys. I think eventually theyll learn to respect us if we handle them bare knuckled. Mambo ya kid gloves hamna!

If you ever wanted an AR-15 beside you when you sleep, there is a company Defense Distributed (http://defcad.org/) which has created the 3D files required to printout as many of this guns as you want.

You can read more about that here http://defensedistributed.com/, http://defcad.org/browse/

areba wrote:aaaah, I hope. (No Im certain) incoming CiC will pick on where the old leaves it at with these guys. I think eventually theyll learn to respect us if we handle them bare knuckled. Mambo ya kid gloves hamna!

Remember a time little Rwanda made france ijichunge how it dealt with her? how much more can we assert ourselves & make the bazungu be careful how they deal with us.constant booty licking & begging bowl syndrome is what has made the former wakoloni continue riding roughshod all over african govts for the past odd 5 decades of 'independence'.heard the statement made by madam Jendai Frazer yesterday on why the US & EU should reverse the way they've began dealing with Young-ole should he eventually be confirmed as our new president.if they fail to behave, they may eventually have themselves to blame.they may start wooing KE when it may be too late.
@ bwana ON, have there been any attempts to urge the refugees to start returning voluntarily or even the refugees are not so keen to go back home? thought the GoK's directive that all wakimbizi should be in camps was enough imperative for most of them to start trooping back home.

Dang, where is LAPSSET?

South Sudan, Ethiopia, Djibouti Agree On Oil Route for Export
http://allafrica.com/stories/201303130844.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

Well, acctually the GoK order to reassemble at the North Camps was never intended to empty our Towns of All refugees. But to ratchet up the Rules of Engagement within Internal Security Agencies - turning up the Heat on both sleeper Cells of Alkebab and Law Enforcement. In the Military it was equivalent to upping the Defense-Condition Matrix. See how quiet Eastleigh has been since? And no spiral insurgency in Urban setting apart from Garissa, Wajir? Soomaliyan Refugees are basically families living in three Countries - parts of a family are in Dhobley while another part in Daadab and yet another part in Eastleigh, all interlocked for survival. Kenya might have to accept these Refugees as Citizens or submit to their presence for an undetermined period of time.

@HokumA - having a gun by your side exponentially increases both the risks you potentially face as well as your martial ability to confront them. If you are having an anniversary dinner at Carnivore with your young wife, believe me the last thing you want on your person is a Glock 31SF. Worse yet when you get her into the bedroom, hehehe!

Easy, @Mogen. Both Sudan and GoSS are slowly grinding to a halt. They need to resume pumping and transiting the oil under whatever terms to stay afloat. GoSS will never settle down until she“s free completely from the suffocating embrace of Sudan. Remember also that Goss National Doctrine for Economic Growth is tagged to her full incorporation in the EAC - heck, they are as much Ugandan and Kenyan in every aspect (but a penchant for senseless conflict) as Spartan and Risasi are. LAPSETT is her gate key to growth.

mogen wrote:Dang, where is LAPSSET?

South Sudan, Ethiopia, Djibouti Agree On Oil Route for Export
http://allafrica.com/stories/201303130844.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

mogen wrote:Dang, where is LAPSSET?

South Sudan, Ethiopia, Djibouti Agree On Oil Route for Export
http://allafrica.com/stories/201303130844.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

LAPSSET should be speeded-up......period!.now Ethiopia building (not planning to) an electric railway line to Djibout port.let's not get derailed.too much at stake.Djibout may be a small country but seems they are very ambitious.time is of essence here.

http://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/news/Chinese-built-electric-railway-to-replace-Ethiopia-old-rail/-/2558/1718934/-/yi2efrz/-/index.html

mogen wrote:Dang, where is LAPSSET?

South Sudan, Ethiopia, Djibouti Agree On Oil Route for Export
http://allafrica.com/stories/201303130844.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

This is a stopgap measure. Transporting crude thousands of miles oil by trucks is not really sustainable. Lapssat is even more viable for Addis let alone Juba. In my opinion Lappsat would only be largely affected if Issaias lets go of one of the red sea ports to Addis.

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-03-14/in-kenya-the-next-big-oil-patch?campaign_id=rss_null

This map might appear to be just another Journalistic piece of conjecture, but it is perfect-similar with what I have hanging on my little Office Wall presently.

The article :Dis also very instructive and exciting, I dare say!!

ole Nkarei wrote:

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-03-14/in-kenya-the-next-big-oil-patch?campaign_id=rss_null

This map might appear to be just another Journalistic piece of conjecture, but it is perfect-similar with what I have hanging on my little Office Wall presently.

The article :Dis also very instructive and exciting, I dare say!!

Why does this remind me of the parable of the wanawali? Imma clean those lamps and put in brand new wicks and have all plus spares filled with oil to last through the night.....

ole Nkarei wrote:

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-03-14/in-kenya-the-next-big-oil-patch?campaign_id=rss_null

This map might appear to be just another Journalistic piece of conjecture, but it is perfect-similar with what I have hanging on my little Office Wall presently.

The article :Dis also very instructive and exciting, I dare say!!

But why is GoSS dangling the oil pipeline before everybody's eyes? First I thought their eyes were only on LAPSSET, then they ran to the Ethiopians, now they're back with Khartoum. In business, you'll always emerge second-best if you're perceived as desperate, and their helter-skelter approach smacks of sheer desperation.

Spartan wrote:

ole Nkarei wrote:

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-03-14/in-kenya-the-next-big-oil-patch?campaign_id=rss_null

This map might appear to be just another Journalistic piece of conjecture, but it is perfect-similar with what I have hanging on my little Office Wall presently.

The article :Dis also very instructive and exciting, I dare say!!

But why is GoSS dangling the oil pipeline before everybody's eyes? First I thought their eyes were only on LAPSSET, then they ran to the Ethiopians, now they're back with Khartoum. In business, you'll always emerge second-best if you're perceived as desperate, and their helter-skelter approach smacks of sheer desperation.

Yes they are desperate, very desperate indeed and they don't believe anyone is acting fast enough so as to rescue them. The economy is grinding to a halt because over 90% of their foreign exchange earner is currently not being exported. They need this temporary truce with the Arab North as a stopgap measure before a more sustainable solution is found. Nairobi is not acting fast enough to them hence the frustration.

This isn't good. I've always been curious why Tullow has been striking it easily while others have been and departed after wild goose chases. Me thinks, the geology of our region having been thoroughly mapped by Johnny they knew where stuff was and selectively gave info to Tullow or somehow Tullow got access to the info. Ama?

But this story is disturbing.

http://www.nation.co.ke/business/news/Tullow-denies-plan-to-pay-off-Museveni/-/1006/1723224/-/11i5skx/-/index.html

mogen wrote:This isn't good. I've always been curious why Tullow has been striking it easily while others have been and departed after wild goose chases. Me thinks, the geology of our region having been thoroughly mapped by Johnny they knew where stuff was and selectively gave info to Tullow or somehow Tullow got access to the info. Ama?

But this story is disturbing.

http://www.nation.co.ke/business/news/Tullow-denies-plan-to-pay-off-Museveni/-/1006/1723224/-/11i5skx/-/index.html

Read the story but this commentator has a very good grasp of what actually happened;

Markus_2012 wrote: The story says there are claims that a bribe was offered ...
not that a bribe was taken. This is a claim made by a rival firm that
wants to avoid paying a tax imposed by Museveni's leadership that would
probably make it go burst. Besides, if a bribe had been paid, it was to
avoid paying the taxes but get renewed drilling concessions. Tullow
wanted new licenses when a transaction they were involved in previously
had not settled taxes that were due from it. Museveni gave a categorical
'no!' - if they wanted to do further business in Uganda, they had to
settle all legal obligations. The taxes were paid, at least partly, and
now the payer is taking Museveni to court for levying a tax on him.
Without Museveni - believe me - a bribe would have been paid instead of a
tax. Study this case very well because Kenya is headed that way with
rival oil firms trading accusations to gain an upper hand

The Ole Man has such power in Ug that he could avail himself with $50m and no one would question it, not that it's a good thing. If you want to piss him off, don't call him dictator, life president etc, just accuse him of working for, or taking bribes from wazungu. You will hear from him soonest regarding these accusations, don't be surprised if he uses very colourful language against Tullow and its officials that have been mentioned.

This is the Typical Modus Operadis for British Conglomerates with interests in the "Colonies" - when on the backfoot, splutter everybody with as much mud as possible, starting with the Top of the Decision-making Tree!

British Conglomerates invented the art of corruption as a Corporate Strategy to craft preferential deals which otherwise if the processes were competitive, then their grossly inefficient Industries and Corporate Bodies weighted down by a Welfare-State conundrum of successive early-seventies and eighties Labour Governments, would simply escape them altogether. One Police LandRover purchases Two-and-half Toyota Landcruisers of superlative quality durability and versatility.

We ALL know how British Conglomerates function from sixty years of their African Adventure. There is and can be no truth to this story. Nothing worth of note, beyond its pretentious assertion that the African has a genetically-induced propensity to be corrupt, ungodly, stupid, gullible, sinful! Eeeiish bana!

Interesting:-
http://eaers.blogspot.com/2013/03/kenyas-oil-deposits-can-run-her-for-300.html

Lots of air activity out of MAB this morning,counted one buff & Y-12,two choppers puma & Hip..............shortly a roar over eastlands its one of our fast air support crisscrossing the city.

Nothing to it, bro. We have a Presidential and C-in-C swearing-in in a couple of days. The world descends on Kenya on a week or so. Usual preps.

Mkenya wrote:Lots of air activity out of MAB this morning,counted one buff & Y-12,two choppers puma & Hip..............shortly a roar over eastlands its one of our fast air support crisscrossing the city.

ole Nkarei wrote:Nothing to it, bro. We have a Presidential and C-in-C swearing-in in a couple of days. The world descends on Kenya on a week or so. Usual preps.

Mkenya wrote:Lots of air activity out of MAB this morning,counted one buff & Y-12,two choppers puma & Hip..............shortly a roar over eastlands its one of our fast air support crisscrossing the city.

I guessed so,stupid rumor i heard in a matatu,Kilo Alfa had surrounded Mike Alfa Bravo so the unusual aerial activity ,talk of some idle grey matter high on some cheap liqor or smoke

mmmh it seem Mr Woo danced prematurely after 4th march, spooking off Uncle Sam and Johnny to post 4 march realities. Woo would have made a home run with our Northern resource if he just kept silent for a few seconds longer after the outcome of 4th march.

Me think
The drop on the Former Head of Public Service Francis Muthaura’s case at the ICC is an eye twitch if not a blink by Sam and Johnny to the obviously speculated and awaited Mr UK(Uhuru Kenyatta) and Mr Woos dance . Me think its a smoke signal to Mr. UK
“may be if you become our good boy , let us in on the Hydrocarbons, we can pull a few strings at the ICC and they could consider your otherwise” i.e a free man too.

me think only